Clifford D. May

Of Benghazi, black swans and icebergs

‘‘Humans are great at self-delusion,” the polymath philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb has observed. I’m confident he’d agree that the humans who populate the foreign policy community are no exception.

Two years ago this month, Osama bin Laden was killed on President Barack Obama’s orders -- a very good thing. Before long, however, sophisticated analysts were declaring that this was not just a battle won -- it was a war ended.

Would closing Gitmo satisfy hunger strikers?

The detention camp at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, was established in 2002 to hold the most dangerous of those captured in what the George W. Bush administration called the Global War on Terrorism. Controversy over the facility has simmered ever since. In recent days, it has begun to boil. One hundred detainees, at last count, are staging a hunger strike.

Defend against jihadist terrorism, recognize threat

Defense policies are not created in a vacuum. They are designed to meet threats. Over time, threats change in ways that are difficult to predict. In the past, America’s enemies generally wore uniforms and confronted American soldiers on a foreign field of battle. Today, America’s enemies may wear backwards-facing baseball caps and attack marathon runners along with the men, women and children cheering for them on a sunny April afternoon in New England.

With Iran, economic sanctions are essential

Two points vital to understanding the sanctions being imposed on Iran: They are unlikely to succeed -- if success is defined as stopping the regime’s rulers from developing nuclear weapons -- yet they are an essential component of any serious and strategic policy mix. Let us count the ways.

Targeted-killing memos should be open to public

“Think about the mothers!” That was the anguished cry of a protester from Code Pink, the left-wing women’s group that four times interrupted John Brennan’s confirmation hearing last week. She was apparently referring to the mothers of such al-Qaida leaders as Anwar al-Awlaki -- killed by a drone strike ordered by President Barack Obama, counseled by Brennan, his White House counterterrorism adviser and now his nominee for director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

This undated publicity photo released by Columbia Pictures Industries, Inc. shows Navy SEALs seen through the greenish glow of night vision goggles, as they prepare to breach a locked door in Osama Bin Laden's compound in Columbia Pictures' hyper-realistic new action thriller from director Kathryn Bigelow, "Zero Dark Thirty." (AP Photo/Columbia Pictures Industries, Inc., Jonathan Olley)

Osama bin Laden and the two Nazirs

 

Nazir is dead. Actually, both Nazirs are dead. Earlier this month, Mullah Nazir, a Taliban and al-Qaida commander, was killed by an American drone strike in South Waziristan, a tribal area of Pakistan. Also recently killed: Abu Nazir, the fictional al-Qaida terrorist in the suspenseful Showtime series “Homeland.”

Photo from balcony overlooking main Al Jazeera television studio towards presenter's desk in the Doha headquarters.

The case against Al Jazeera America

 

A few years back, I was interviewed by a reporter from Al Arabiya, the Saudi-owned television news channel. Afterward, we sat for a while and talked journalism. He mentioned that he had previously worked for Al Jazeera. I asked why he had left. “Too many Islamists,” he said. “They made me uncomfortable.”

Islamist threat is second to none

Robert D. Kaplan has long been among America’s most insightful analysts of global trends. I would rather argue with him than agree with most others. Right now, I’m going to do a bit of both.

In this photo released by the Syrian official news agency SANA, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, right, meets with UN Arab League deputy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi in Damascus, Syria, Monday, Dec. 24, 2012. The international envoy tasked with pushing to end Syria's civil war said the situation is still "worrying" after discussing the crisis with President Bashar Assad on Monday. The remarks gave no indication of progress toward a negotiated solution to the conflict. (AP Photo/SANA)

Bashar al-Assad is so out of vogue

 

It seems like only yesterday that Bashar al-Assad was being courted by progressive Western politicians even as he conspired with Iranian jihadists and Kremlin strongmen. And it was less than two years ago that Anna Wintour, editor of Vogue and Comandante of the Fashionistas, was celebrating First Lady Asma al-Assad as “a rose in the desert,” whose “style is not the couture-and-bling dazzle of Middle Eastern power but a deliberate lack of adornment ... a thin, long-limbed beauty with a trained analytic mind who dresses with cunning understatement.”

Hamas’ missiles aim at genocide in Israel

Israel, as its friends and enemies never forget, is a "one-bomb country." One nuclear weapon is all it would take to wipe out a nation whose territory is smaller than Djibouti, with a population smaller than that of Burundi -- fewer than 8 million people, 20 percent of whom are Arabs who, by the way, enjoy rights denied to Arabs (not to mention non-Arab minorities) elsewhere in the Middle East.

FILE - In this Feb. 23, 2011, file photo President Barack Obama, with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton at right, speaks about Libya in the Grand Foyer of the White House in Washington. Obama now has a freer hand to deal with a world of familiar problems in fresh ways. That could mean tougher Iran and Syria policies, or new engagement toward countries such as Cuba and North Korea. He could also refocus on the moribund Middle East peace efforts. But a pressing task is assigning a new national security team. Clinton has announced her plans to retire and could stay a few weeks past January to help the administration as it reshuffles personnel. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)

Lessons from the Battle of Benghazi

Now that the election is behind us, perhaps we can put politics aside and acknowledge a hard fact: On Sept. 11 of this year, America was defeated by al-Qaida in the Battle of Benghazi.

In this picture taken on Monday, Feb. 13, 2012, an Iranian woman uses a computer in an internet cafe in central Tehran, Iran. Iran calls it the "soft war" with the West: Battles to control, defend and monitor the web and telecommunications. The latest move came from the Revolutionary Guard, launching what they claim is a hack-proof phone network for high-level commanders. Tehran's efforts to build a cyber-fortress have become a priority among leaders fearful of Internet espionage and virus attacks from abroad and seeking to choke off opposition voices at home. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Don't let Islamists use our tech to crush dissent

"The fax shall make you free."

Albert Wohlstetter, the great Cold War strategist, recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, said that back in 1990. He was right: The advent of fax machines, Xerox copiers and other then-cutting-edge communications technologies was an enormous boon to the free flow of information. In Communist countries, the Samzidat was transformed: Dissident self-publishers, who previously would sit at typewriters copying banned books page by page, could now, with the push of a button, create dozens of copies and transmit them almost anywhere.

People gather to pay their respects to the shooting victims of Mohamed Merah in Toulouse, France, Friday March 23, 2012. France's prime minister fended off suggestions Friday that anti-terrorism authorities fell down on the job in monitoring a radical Islamist who gunned down children, paratroopers and a rabbi in a wave of killings that revolted the country. Merah, who claimed allegiance to al-Qaida died Thursday during a gunfight with police following a 32-hour standoff outside his apartment in the southwestern city of Toulouse. Banner reads:" Jews, Christians, muslims, same God, Love". (AP Photo/Thibault Camus)

Muslim groups must denounce deadly 'lone wolves'

To those who proclaim themselves jihadis, Mohamed Merah is a hero and a martyr. He became a hero last month when he attacked a Jewish school in Toulouse, murdering Rabbi Jonathan Sandler, his two young sons, Gabriel and Arieh, and a 7-year-old girl, Myriam Monsonego, whom he pulled by the hair and then shot in the head. He became a martyr when, after a 33-hour standoff, he was killed by French commandos.

Why Saudia Arabia will want a nuke if Iran gets one

Fareed Zakaria is wearing his "I'm perplexed" face. On his weekly CNN program, he is noting that Saudi Arabia did not go nuclear in response to "Israel's buildup of a large arsenal of nuclear weapons." So why, he asks the camera, would the Saudis do so in response to Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons?

The camera did not answer, so I will: The Saudis are not fools. They know Israel poses no threat to them. They know, too, that those who rule the Islamic Republic of Iran seek to establish hegemony over the Middle East and lead a global Islamist Ascendency.

How to stop putting gasoline in Islamist tank

Islamists are a diverse lot. Some are what diplomats like to call "violent extremists." They want to kill you. Others are less eager to shed blood, more confident that by mastering electoral politics, manipulating international organizations and designing effective public relations campaigns they can achieve their objectives. What are those objectives? Islamism implies a commitment to the imperative of Islamic power. Hassan al-Banna, founder of the Muslim Brotherhood articulated the basic idea succinctly:

It is the nature of Islam to dominate, not to be dominated, to impose its law on all nations and to extend its power to the entire planet.

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