Many asking, 'Who is right?'
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No Comments [ Add Comment ]By Victoria Johnson
Standard-Examiner staff
O
GDEN -- Mayor Matthew Godfrey says violent crime is down 43 percent. Councilwoman Susan Van Hooser says it's up 35 percent. Who is right?
Both.
Sort of.
Ogden residents found in their mailboxes this week fliers from both the Van Hooser and Godfrey mayoral campaigns.
Godfrey's boasts an overall crime reduction in the last eight years of 23 percent and a violent crime reduction from 1999 through 2000 of 43 percent. He cites the Ogden Police Department as the source.
Van Hooser's flier tells of a 35 percent increase in violent crime from 2004 to 2006. She cites the state's Bureau of Criminal Identification.
Offering some insight into the numbers issue is Weber State University sociology Professor Dr. Robert Reynolds, who teaches statistics courses.
"I don't think they're changing the information that's there, but because of the sources they choose and the time period they choose, they're trying to make it most favorable to them," he said Friday.
Ogden's crime statistics, like those of other municipalities, are available from three sources: the city, the state and the federal government. The ultimate product is the FBI's Uniform Crime Report, which was created to "meet a need for reliable, uniform crime statistics for the nation," according to the bureau's Web site.
At each level, the criteria of how crimes are defined is different, resulting in slightly different numbers. So the statistics used by both candidates are correct according to their sources, with each candidate claiming his or her source is more reliable.
Van Hooser criticized Godfrey for using the police department as a source, saying the police could manipulate the numbers internally, but Godfrey pointed out that the same department numbers are submitted to the state and the federal government, which then use the figures to build their reports.
He criticized Van Hooser for using only two years of data, from 2004 to 2006, to emphasize a dramatic increase in violent crime, when the state numbers indicate a dip in 2004.
When using the same state statistics comparing 2002 and 2006, the number of violent crimes is virtually the same: 473 in 2002 and 474 in 2006.
When asked about those numbers, Van Hooser acknowledged that point and said, "Basically, crime in general has been flat."
She said she is more concerned that Ogden residents do not feel safe.
"If people don't feel safe, then they aren't safe. That's the statistic I'm worried about."
Godfrey said this was not enough. He said Van Hooser's numbers were misleading and did not reflect a meaningful trend.
"I mean, during those eight years, I could pick two years that show a huge decline, but I watch trend lines ... crime ebbs and flows, so we watch trends, and there's a clear downward trend here."
The Ogden Police Department's statistics, which the mayor cites, are available via a link from Ogden city's home page, www.ogdencitycom. The state's statistics are available at the Utah Department of Public Safety Bureau of Identification's home page, http://bci.utah.gov.
The FBI Uniform Crime Reports are available online at www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm.
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