Immigration reform battle is tearing away President Bush's base
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By Doug Gibson
Commentary
There has been a sharp downturn in President Bush's approval numbers. For the past year most media polls have had Bush in the mid-30s. A more accurate poll -- Rasmussen Reports -- had Bush around 40 percent for a long time.
Those numbers are so low that it is hard to sink lower. But the president has managed to do that. A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll last week gave Bush a 29 percent approval rating. On June 20 Rasmussen has the president's approval at 35 percent.
The only good news for Bush is that the Democratic-controlled Congress has lower approval ratings -- in the WSJ/NBC poll, only 23 percent approve of Congress. A Rasmussen poll gave Sen. Majority Lead Harry Reid, D-Nev., an abysmal 19 percent approval rating.
With high gas prices and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the public is already in a grumpy mood. Nevertheless, these numbers should cause President Bush alarm -- they are approaching former President Nixon's lowest numbers; just before he resigned, his approval rating was 24 percent.
When an unpopular president's approval ratings fall into the mid-30s and below, it means a significant percentage of his political base is deserting him. According to the WSJ/NBC poll, only 62 percent of Republicans approve of his performance. A healthy chunk -- 32 percent -- of Republicans disapprove of Bush's performance.
President Bush never really had Democrats on his side. He lost so-called independents a long time ago. He can't afford to lose more Republicans.
The reason for the president's new drop in polling numbers is the U.S. Senate bill for comprehensive immigration reform. The president is passionately for it. His base is just as passionately against it. Polls show that while most Americans support individual parts of the comprehensive immigration reform bill, they don't like the bill as-is. Its overall support hovers at about 25 percent, but must be lower among Republicans.
Although I support the bill, I understand why it is unpopular. Americans were lied to by politicians 20 years ago, the last time this was tried. Legislators were quick to grant amnesty but slow to offend big business and secure the borders.
There are other reasons the bill is unpopular with the president's base. One is a basic issue of fairness. People feel that it is wrong for an individual to come to this country illegally and be granted what they regard as amnesty. It may be impractical to forcibly remove 12 million or more illegals from the United States, but that reality does not temper the outrage.
There is another, more subtle reason, the bill is opposed. Many Americans are not convinced that Hispanic immigrants want to assimilate into the United States. They fear that the newcomers' allegiances are with their native countries. The sight of Mexican flags being waved by illegals at rallies in major American cities not only angers many Americans, it frightens them as well.
I don't agree with this sentiment, but many people I respect have a real fear that the immigration reform bill will, in the long term, erode an "American culture" they take pride in. And they are furious that President Bush, Sens. John McCain, Trent Lott, Lindsey Graham and others don't share that concern.
Having said all this, there is an easy way for Bush to soothe his disgruntled base and boost his approval numbers. Take the border-enforcement measures of the immigration reform bill -- more technology, 700 miles of fence, thousands more agents -- and just get that done. It would pass easily, and President Bush would see a small surge in his approval numbers as a chunk of his base returns. He might even score some political points against protesting Democrats, many of whom support open borders and mass amnesty.
After that is done, the president can resume arguing for "Z" visas, guest-worker programs, possible citizenship for current illegals and other less-popular portions of the immigration reform bill.
Yet President Bush seems determined to try and shove the entire bill on a public that opposes it. Why he is so stubborn on this issue remains a mystery to his supporters, and former supporters.
Gibson is the Standard-Examiner's assistant editorial page editor. He can be reached at dgibson@standard.net.
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