Utah experts see McCain, conservative base, mending disagreements
1 comment for this page [ View ]Thursday, April 10, 2008
By DOUG GIBSON
Commentary
dgibson@standard.net
It was only about nine months ago that presumptive Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain appeared to be finished as a candidate. He was flying coach. Many of his advisers had left. Gadfly candidate Rep. Ron Paul was raising more money.
But McCain grabbed the nod, knocking off his toughest challenger, Mitt Romney, in the crucial Florida primary. Contenders Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani faded, and Mike Huckabee's appeal was limited. McCain still needs to convince base conservatives -- think talk radio -- that he is one of them. And how will he do with moderates, independents and Romney supporters? Is the extended Democratic Party battle helping McCain's candidacy?
We all remember the grumbling from Limbaugh, Hannity, Ingraham, etc., when McCain won the GOP nod. So, has the talk radio base moved back to McCain?
"I think it is healing," says Richard Richards, former Republican National Committee chairman. Richards, who now oversees a politics, decency and ethics program at Weber State University, says the base wants a perfect candidate.
"(But), we don't have another Ronald Reagan," he says. Nevertheless, most are realists, he maintains. "The alternative to John McCain is either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, and that is an unacceptable alternative."
Peter Watkins, the president of Watkins Global Strategies and adjunct professor at the University of Utah, worked in the current Bush administration as a presidential spokesman, deputy press secretary for Laura Bush and press liaison. Watkins says talk radio is no threat to abandon McCain. "I don't think they have any choice," says Watkins, pointing out that McCain's positions are far closer to talk radio listeners than Clinton's or Obama's.
Many liberal pundits accuse McCain of moving to the right to get the GOP nomination. Watkins disagrees. McCain's campaign sputtered last year because he pandered to movement conservatives. He only started to surge when he decided "to stick with what he knew," and return to his maverick, more moderate persona. "That re-energized him," Watkins says.
Both Richards and Watkins agree Republicans may have been lucky that McCain is the nominee. Besides eventually appealing to the base, "(Republicans) somehow picked a candidate the center of the electorate would gravitate to," explains Watkins.
The discord between Obama and Clinton helps distance McCain from those liberals, adds Richards. "I think it is probably true that the GOP lucked into McCain," he said. Both Richards and Watkins see McCain's tendency to ignore controversies such as the comments by Rev. Jeremiah Wright as deliberate, to keep the Arizona senator above the fray.
Richards believes McCain will win the presidency in November. Clinton will be hurt by Obama supporters angered that she stole the nomination, and although it is unfortunate, "race will be an issue" if Obama is nominated, he adds. The controversy over Obama's reverend is not over, he says.
Watkins is more wary of McCain's chances in November, but says there is still a lot of time for McCain to win. The future of the economy and war will help determine the election. "I see Sen. Obama competing in states where economic storylines are heavy," he says. Conversely, in states where defense issues are strong -- such as Florida -- McCain may have an advantage, he adds.
Now to the big question: What are Mitt Romney's chances of getting the VP slot? Richards believes Romney won't be the No. 2 pick. "He (McCain) needs to make inroads to the South," says Richards, and the "South is not going to support a Mormon." However, that does not mean Romney antagonist Huckabee will be the VP pick, adds Richards, explaining that Huckabee's popularity does not extend beyond evangelicals and the South.
Richards sees a conservative VP pick, perhaps among a handful of conservative Republican governors.
"(McCain) understands that he needs to move to the right," says Richards. The vice presidential pick wlll be key to that, he added.
Watkins sees a better chance of Romney being selected as McCain's VP. He cited Karl Rove, who has mentioned Romney as someone who could be a VP perceived as ready to be president. This could be important, given McCain's age -- he'll be 72 in August -- and if he plans to be a one-term president. Also, Romney's economic expertise will be helpful if the economy remains a challenge, adds Watkins.
For interest groups wary of McCain, picking a conservative like Romney gives these groups an expedient reason to support McCain.
"A strong vice presidential pick will provide cover for people who will vote for him regardless," says Watkins. He was at the recent McCain fundraiser in Utah and said that the candidate and Romney looked like a strong team standing together.
Gibson is the Standard-Examiner's assistant editorial page editor. He can be reached at dgibson@standard.net.
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I think this is an interesting statement from the article.
"Richards believes McCain will win the presidency in November. Clinton will be hurt by Obama supporters angered that she stole the nomination, and although it is unfortunate, "race will be an issue" if Obama is nominated, he adds. The controversy over Obama's reverend is not over, he says."
It's a sad state in our country that we can predict someone will or won't be elected because of gender or race. I also think it's sad that Republicans, who have hurt our country with their extreme politics can think they can fix it by having a more moderate candidate and then helping the extreme wing of the party to accept him by scaring them with how bad it will be if they elect a moderate woman or a black. Personally I look at it like this. How much worse can it get. We have the highest gas prices ever, food prices are higher then I can ever remember, we've lost man of our fundemental freedoms with the Patriot Act, we've sacrifice over 4000 men in a war that was started with a lie (let alone the number wounded or the Iraq citizens hurt and killed), our status in the world have been deminished to it's lowest level ever, we have the highest national debt ever, the largest trade deficit ever, and are looking at a recession that could be prolonged. I don't believe a moderate from the same party that brought us all this pain is the right choice. I also don't feel that basing my vote on race or gender is an acceptable thing to do in our diverse country. In otherwords I want a change and I don't care if there is a woman or a black man heading our country. It's time the United States start living up to the principles our country was founded on, like equality for all.