National Signing Day is Wednesday, and fans who follow college football are sure that this highly ranked recruiting class will be the one that puts their teams over the top.
In some cases, it definitely could. In others? Let's just say there will be no reason for a lot of fans to buy those foam fingers proclaiming, "We're No. 1!"
And there almost certainly will be some fans complaining about this year's class who, two or three years from now, instead will be saying, "I told you that 2012 class was great!"
We looked at each of the teams that finished in the top 25 of this season coaches' poll and checked how they recruited in each of the past five recruiting cycles (2007-11).
Here are the results:
------
1. Alabama
Average ranking past 5 classes: 4th
Buzz: Alabama has finished in the top 10 in each of the past five recruiting cycles and in the top five in each of the past four, including three No. 1 rankings. The "worst" class in that stretch came in 2007, when the Tide was 10th. That class provided four key three-star recruits on this season's title team: DL Josh Chapman and Nick Gentry, C William Vlachos and WR Marquis Maze. The top-ranked 2008 class included Marcell Dareus and Julio Jones, and also had these four-star guys who played big roles this season: SS Mark Barron, FS Robert Lester, LBs Dont'a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw and OT Barrett Jones. The 2009 class was ranked No. 1 and had three five-star recruits who started this season: TB Trent Richardson, OT D.J. Fluker and CB Dre Kirkpatrick. Five-star LB Nico Johnson was a backup.
2. LSU
Average ranking past 5 classes: 6th
Buzz: LSU's lowest rank in the past five years was 11th in 2008. The other classes have ranged from second to sixth. In the past five years, using each year's top five, LSU has signed 22 of the state of Louisiana's top 25 players. The 2009 class ranked second; it included five-star WRs Rueben Randle and Russell Shepard (a high school quarterback), three-star CB Morris Claiborne, four-star DTs Michael Brockers and Josh Downs, four-star DEs Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo, four-star LB Kevin Minter and three-star OL Josh Williford. CB Tyrann Mathieu was a four-star signee in 2010, as was S Eric Reid. RB Spencer Ware was a five-star guy in '10.
3. Oklahoma State
Average ranking past 5 classes: 30th
Buzz: The Cowboys have ranked in the top 40 in each of the past five years, but the highest ranking was 26th in 2008. QB Brandon Weeden graduated high school before the Rivals.com ranking system was in place. WR Justin Blackmon was a three-star prospect in 2008. All-Big 12 OT Levy Adcock was an unranked JC transfer who walked-on in 2009. TB Joseph Randle was a four-star guy in 2010. In 2007, DE Jamie Blatnick was a two-star guy and C Grant Garner a three-star prospect. That '07 class also included Dez Bryant (four stars) and Kendall Hunter (three stars).
4. Oregon
Average ranking past 5 classes: 17th
Buzz: Oregon has had four top-20 classes in the past five years; the other was 32nd, in 2009. TB LaMichael James and QB Darron Thomas were four-star signees in 2008; TB Kenjon Barner was a three-star guy that same year. LB Michael Clay was a three-star prospect in 2009. De'Anthony Thomas was a five-star player in 2011.
5. Arkansas
Average ranking past 5 classes: 31st
Buzz: The Hogs have been in the top 50 in each of the past five classes, and their best was 16th in 2009. The worst was 49th in 2010. DE Jake Bequette and LB Jerry Franklin were three-star guys in 2007. QB Tyler Wilson was a four-star prospect and S Tramain Thomas a three-star recruit in 2008. RB Knile Davis was a four-star signee in 2009.
6. Boise State
Average ranking past 5 classes: 73rd
Buzz: Boise State's highest-ranked class in the past five years came in 2011, at 53rd. QB Kellen Moore was a three-star prospect in 2007; RB Doug Martin, DE Shea McClellin and OT Nate Potter were two-star recruits in that same class.
7. Stanford
Average ranking past 5 classes: 34th
Buzz: While the Cardinal has been in the top 50 in each of the past four years, with a high of 20th in 2009. The 2008 class, which ranked 50th, had four-star QB Andrew Luck, three-star G David DeCastro and three-star OT Jonathan Martin; all three will go in the first round of the NFL draft, with each a possibility to go in the top 10. The class also had two-star C Sam Schwartzstein, three-star LB Chase Thomas and three-star RB Delano Howell, who became a starting strong safety.
8. South Carolina
Average ranking past 5 classes:16th
Buzz: The Gamecocks have had top-25 classes in each of the past five years, with the best being No. 6 in 2007. That was the only one in the top 15 and one of two in the top 20. DE Melvin Ingram was a four-star signee in 2007, the same year S/OLB Antonio Allen was a three-star guy. TB Marcus Lattimore was a five-star recruit in 2010, and DE Jadeveon Clowney was a five-star player in 2011.
9. Michigan
Average ranking past 5 classes: 14th
Buzz: The Wolverines had two top-10 classes and no class worse than 21st in the past five recruiting cycles. The best was No. 8 in 2009. QB Denard Robinson, RB Fitzgerald Toussaint and LB/DE Craig Roh were four-star prospects in '09. DT Mike Martin was a four-star guy in 2008.
10. Michigan State
Average ranking past 5 classes: 33rd
Buzz: The Spartans had top-50 classes in each of the past five years, with the highest being No. 17 in 2009. The other classes were between 30th and 47th. All-American DT Jerel Worthy was a three-star prospect in 2008. QB Kirk Cousins was a three-star guy in 2007; so was QB Nick Foles, who began his career with the Spartans before transferring to Arizona. DE William Gholston was a five-star guy in 2009, and leading tackler Max Bullough was a four-star signee the same year.
11. Wisconsin
Average ranking past 5 classes: 49th
Buzz: Yes, you read that right: The Badgers' classes over the past five recruiting classes have averaged 49th. The best in that span was 34th in 2007; the other four classes all ranked 40th or worse. OT Josh Oglesby was a five-star prospect in '07. TB Montee Ball was a four-star guy in 2009. QB Russell Wilson was a two-star recruit in 2007, when he signed with North Carolina State.
12. Baylor
Average ranking past 5 classes: 51st
Buzz: Robert Griffin was a four-star prospect in 2008 and helped the Bears' class rank 51st that season. Star WR Kendall Wright was a three-star prospect in that same class. The Bears have had top-50 classes in each of the past two cycles: 39th in 2010 and 46th last season.
13. TCU
Average ranking past 5 classes: 59th
Buzz: TCU's past three classes were top-50 groups, but the 2007 and '08 classes were closer to 100th than 50th. QB Casey Pachall was a four-star prospect in the 2009 class, with ranked 46th nationally. TB Ed Wesley, the Horned Frogs' leading rusher this season, was a two-star guy in 2008.
14. Houston
Average ranking past 5 classes: 74th
Buzz: The best player on this season's Houston team actually arrived in the 2006 signing class as a two-star quarterback. Case Keenum was a sixth-year senior this season, when he set all sorts of NCAA career passing records. His top receiver, Patrick Edwards, was unranked in the 2007 class. LB Sammy Brown, who led the nation in tackles for loss this season with 30, was a three-star recruit as a JC transfer in 2010; that Cougars' class ranked 46th, the only one of the past five to finish in the top 50.
15. Oklahoma
Average ranking past 5 classes: 11th
Buzz: The Sooners were in the top 15 in each of the past five years, with a high of sixth in 2008. QB Landry Jones was a four-star prospect in that class, which was headlined by three five-star guys who never really panned out (G Stephen Good, RB Jermie Calhoun and DE R.J. Washington). WR Ryan Broyles, who set the NCAA career receptions record this season, was a four-star player in 2007.
16. Kansas State
Average ranking past 5 classes: 58th
Buzz: The Wildcats had top-40 classes in 2007 (38th) and '08 (27th), but haven't finished better than 63rd in any of the past three years. QB Collin Klein was a three-star prospect in 2008. Leading sacker Meshak Williams was a two-star prospect in 2009.
17. Virginia Tech
Average ranking past 5 classes: 25th
Buzz: The Hokies' lowest recruiting ranking in the past five classes came last year, when they were 33rd. The highest-ranked class in that span came in 2008, when they were 18th; the other three classes were ranked between 23rd and 29th. QB Logan Thomas, TB David Wilson and CB Jayron Hosley were four-star prospects in 2009. The 2008 class was headlined by TB Ryan Williams, who turned pro after last season.
18. West Virginia
Average ranking past 5 classes: 33rd
Buzz: While WVU had a top-50 class in each of the past five years, they only had one in the top 25, finishing 23rd in 2007. QB Geno Smith and WRs Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey were four-star prospects in the 2009 class, which ranked 27th.
19. Southern Miss
Average ranking past 5 classes: 57th
Buzz: The Golden Eagles had one top-five class in the past five years, finishing 37th in 2008 thanks to the signing of five-star WR DeAndre Brown. Star QB Austin Davis was a walk-on who originally played to play baseball for Southern Miss.
20. Georgia
Average ranking past 5 classes: 8th
Buzz: Georgia has had four top-10 finishes in the past five classes, with a high of No. 5 last year. The 2008 class, which was seventh, contributed seven starters to this season's team, including four-star OL Cordy Glenn, four-star CB Brandon Boykin and three-star K Blair Walsh. QB Aaron Murray and TE Orson Charles were four-star signees in 2009.
21. Cincinnati
Average ranking past 5 classes: 65th
Buzz: The Bearcats had one top-50 class in the past five cycles, and that was 49th last year. RB Isaiah Pead, a two-time 1,000-yard rusher, was a three-star prospect in the 2008 class; star DT Derek Wolfe was a two-star player in that same class. QB Zach Collaros was a three-star guy in 2007
22. Clemson
Average ranking past 5 classes: 18th
Buzz: The Tigers had four top-20 classes in the past five cycles, highlighted by a No. 8 finish in 2011. That class was headlined by five-star wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who was a freshman All-American this season. The lone non-top-20 class came in 2009 (37th), but that class did have four-star QB Tajh Boyd.
23. Florida State
Average ranking past 5 classes: 10th
Buzz: The Seminoles had four top-10 classes in the past five cycles, with a high of second last year. They were 21st in '07. WR Bert Reed and All-America P Shawn Powell were the only remnants of the 20-man '07 class on this season's roster.
24. Nebraska
Average ranking past 5 classes: 22nd
Buzz: Each of the past five classes has been ranked at least 30th, with two finishing in the top 20 (15th in 2011 and 13th in 2007). Rex Burkhead was a four-star running back and QB Taylor Martinez a three-star athlete in the 2009 class
25. BYU
Average ranking past 5 classes: 58th
Buzz: Two of the Cougars' past five classes were in the top 50 - 40th in 2010 and 50th in '09. QB Jake Heaps, who lost his starting job this season and has transferred, was a four-star recruit in '10. Star LB Kyle Van Noy was a four-star recruit in '09, the same year leading receiver Cody Hoffman was a two-star guy.
OK, what about the biggest misses: the teams that ranked highly every February but didn't get it done on the field this season?
Florida
Average ranking past 5 classes: 6th
Buzz: The Gators were 7-6 with a bowl win but had an alarming lack of playmakers offensively. Florida finished in the top three three times in the past five years, including the No. 1 class in 2007; the other finishes were 11th and 12th.
Texas
Average ranking past 5 classes: 6th
Buzz: The Longhorns finished 8-5 with a bowl win but struggled to throw the ball. As with Florida, quarterback play was a huge problem. The Longhorns had four top-10 finishes, with a high of third twice, and the lowest finish in the recruiting rankings in the past five years was 14th.
Auburn
Average ranking past 5 classes: 11th
Buzz: Auburn was 8-5 with a bowl win, but the offense lacked consistency and the defense struggled against, basically, any offense with a pulse. The Tigers have finished in the recruiting top 20 in each of the past five years, with a high of fourth in 2010 (the Cam Newton class).
Notre Dame
Average ranking past 5 classes: 11th
Buzz: The Irish finished 8-5 with a bowl loss, and uneven quarterback play was a problem. The defense, for the most part, played well. The Irish had three top-10 recruiting finishes in the past five years, including a No. 2 ranking in 2008; there also was a 14th-place finish and a 21st-place showing.
Ohio State
Average ranking past 5 classes: 12th
Buzz: The Buckeyes finished 6-7 with a bowl loss, and suspensions and a punchless offense were the culprits. The Buckeyes had two top-10 finishes in the past five recruiting cycles, including a No. 3 showing in 2009. The only finish outside the top 20 was 25th in 2010.
Comments