Haven't even received my Hall of Fame ballot yet, so I'm going to take my time on this interesting batch of newcomers. My gut tells me "I'm not sure" on all four of Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff, which is why I'll . . . you know, actually take the time to analyze their statistics.
But there's one holdover candidate about whom I've been thinking about for a long time now. Whose statistics have never, in my mind, been part of the debate.
And after three years of being part of the majority naysayers, I'm now prepared to proclaim this and risk the accusations of flip-flopping:
You'll have my support this year, Mark McGwire.
Why? Credit, or blame, the following people:
1. Alex Rodriguez. When A-Rod confessed to using illegal performance-enhancing drugs last February, I initially joined the tsk-tskers, saying on various media outlets that I would never vote for A-Rod on my Hall of Fame ballot.
As the A-Rod story dragged on for weeks, however, with cousins and Tic Tacs getting drawn into the whirlpool, I became increasingly uncomfortable sitting on that side of the aisle. The moralistic finger-pointing and hand-wringing.
Given that we now know about the 1990s and the early part of this decade, it now seems silly to regard A-Rod or any other cheater as a pariah. He served as a sign of his "loosey-goosey" times, as he accurately described it.
I have no doubt that McGwire used illegal PEDs. None. The evidence is stronger than people often portray it. And I confess to being offended by McGwire's whole "good guy" act, his embracing of the Maris family as he utilized illicit means to topple Roger Maris' single-season record.
You know what, though? Those means weren't illicit under the aegis of Major League Baseball. Same goes for A-Rod. They both played by the rules of the game, as did Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens et al.
Rafael Palmeiro and Manny Ramirez both broke illegal PED rules on baseball's books, so they'll be part of a different discussion.
2. Derek Jeter. Remember his reaction to the A-Rod news, back in spring training? "Everybody wasn't doing it." He wanted to distance himself from those not as adherent back in the day.
I used to feel that, as a Hall of Fame voter, it was my job to protect those who didn't use illegal PEDs. Jeter's "Don't blame me" moment helped me shed that paternal instinct.
Because back in 1998 and 1999, when McGwire and Sammy Sosa were lighting up ballparks like a pinball machine, you know who had the cache to speak up about the increasing prominence of illegal PEDs and chose not to?
Derek Jeter, that's who, He instead used his fame to promote sneakers and cars and watches. Which is absolutely fine. Yet don't whine now about the perception of the past, when you blew your chance to impact it.
3. Mike Vaccaro. The New York Post columnist wrote a marvelous book, "The First Fall Classic," about the 1912 World Series between the Red Sox and Giants. In recapturing this bygone era, Vaccaro shows us a baseball world in which gamblers were as ubiquitous as "at-bat introduction songs" are today.
We'll never know how many games from that period -- how many statistics -- carried the stench of a gambler's fingerprint. Just as we'll never know how many numbers from the past 20 years were juiced.
Every era has its taint, whether it's gamblers, steroids, racism or something less pernicious like ballpark dimensions. Our job is to sift through the nonsense, take the emotion out of the conversation and determine the best players of the era.
A McGwire induction in Cooperstown wouldn't be the most uplifting, or heart-wrenching. That's all right. Life is complicated. We can discuss what happened and what it means.
But to execute selective jurisprudence, based on rules that never existed, no longer makes sense to me.
And now, time to study the new guys' stats, to prepare for more intense discussion . . .
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THE FAME GAME
Ken Davidoff handicaps the players eligible for election to the Hall of Fame.
Roberto Alomar. Most impressive first-year candidate. Odds: 3-1.
Bert Blyleven: Got 62.7 percent last year. Fortunately for him, the electorate is getting smarter. Odds: 5-1
Andre Dawson: Got 67 percent last year. Unfortunately for him, the electorate is getting smarter. Odds: 6-1
Barry Larkin: The 1995 NL MVP should help Odds: 9-1
Fred McGriff: Will his "clean" reputation help? Odds: 12-1
Edgar Martinez: His DH-ness and relatively short career will probably hurt. Odds: 15-1
Jack Morris: Still has much support for his victories and workhorse image. Odds: 15-1
Tim Raines: With Rickey Henderson inducted, will people appreciate Raines' excellence, too? Odds: 16-1
Lee Smith: Hangs in there, with all of those saves. Odds: 18-1
Mark McGwire: Wonder if his eventual news conference, as Cardinals hitting coach, will factor? Odds: 21-1
Alan Trammell: Hard to see him getting much of a boost. Odds: 25-1
Dave Parker: It's been too long now, and he gets too few votes. Odds: 35-1
Don Mattingly: He has his loyalists, but they're too few. Odds: 40-1
Dale Murphy: See Mattingly. Odds: 40-1
Andres Galarraga: Might get enough for a second look. Odds: 45-1
Harold Baines: He might fall off the ballot this year: Odds: 50-1
Field (Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Robin Ventura and Todd Zeile): For the rest of these first-year candidates, the honor comes in making the ballot. Odds: 100-1
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