Eight of the last 11 Super Bowl losers failed to qualify for the playoffs the following season. None of those eight, however, had Peyton Manning as their quarterback.
So don't look for the Indianapolis Colts to take a step backward in 2010 despite that heart-thumping Super Bowl defeat to the New Orleans Saints.
The Colts were the NFL's best team last season with a 14-2 record. Manning was the league's best player, capturing the MVP award a record fourth time.
The Colts reached the Super Bowl despite the absence of Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders for 17 of the team's 19 games because of a torn biceps muscle. Indianapolis also played 18 games without starting wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez, and starting cornerbacks Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden combined to suit up for only 16 of a possible 38 games.
Still, the Colts won their first 14 games to claim the AFC's home-field advantage. Indianapolis then shut it down, losing the final two games of the regular season while playing their reserves. The Colts then paddled both wild-card teams -- Baltimore and the Jets -- to reach the Super Bowl.
Now Sanders, the NFL's 2007 Defensive Player of the Year, is back. So is Gonzalez, who caught 57 passes in 2008, as is Hayden. Indianapolis used its first-round draft pick to add yet another undersized speed pass rusher -- TCU's Jerry Hughes. He's a future Pro Bowler in Indy's defensive scheme.
On paper, the Colts are a better team than the squad that finished 16-3 a year ago and took a lead into the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl. That makes Indianapolis the favorite to win it all in 2010. So put the Colts atop The Dallas Morning News' annual off-season rankings.
No team has played a Super Bowl on its home field. The Colts are a year away from having that opportunity when Indianapolis hosts the 2012 Super Bowl. But the Cowboys have that chance this season.
The defending NFC East champions finished second in the NFL in offense last season and allowed the fewest points in the NFC on defense.
So pencil in a Colts-Cowboys Super Bowl in February.
1. Indianapolis
The Colts were the AFC's best team a year ago despite getting nothing from their running game (No. 32 in NFL) and a disappointing 34 sacks from a pass rush that features two Pro Bowl edge rushers (Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis). Peyton Manning had to shoulder more of the burden than usual, and he responded. He used 2009 to develop two young wideouts into playmakers (Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon) and led seven fourth-quarter, come-from-behind victories. The Colts also overcame 65 games lost by starters because of injury to win the AFC.
Final 2009 ranking: 2
2. Dallas
Only the Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints had a more prolific offense than the Cowboys in 2009. The arrival of WR Dez Bryant gives the Cowboys the best offense in the NFL. QB Tony Romo, HB Marion Barber, WRs Miles Austin and Roy Williams and TE Jason Witten all have been to Pro Bowls, and first-round draft picks Bryant and HB Felix Jones have Pro Bowl potential. The Cowboys will need all of that to survive a schedule that includes games at Indianapolis, Green Bay, Houston and Minnesota. The Saints also visit Cowboys Stadium.
Final 2009 ranking: 5
3. Baltimore
The Ravens have always won with defense. They reached the AFC semifinals last season with the NFL's third-ranked defense and figure to be even stronger in 2010 with the additions of pass rusher Sergio Kindle and nose tackle Terrence Cody with their first two draft picks. But the offense is no longer just a spare tire -- not with the emergence of Ray Rice as a Pro Bowl running back and the arrival of WR Anquan Boldin this offseason in trade. They will help accelerate the development of QB Joe Flacco, who passed for 3,613 yards last season.
Final 2009 ranking: 11
4. Green Bay
The Packers finished sixth in the NFL in offense and second in defense last season with the youngest roster in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers emerged as a Pro Bowl quarterback, and Green Bay re-emerged as a playoff contender, winning seven of its final eight games to qualify as a wild card. Twenty-one of the 22 starters return with only Aaron Kampman defecting in free agency. First-round draft pick Bryan Bulaga bolsters the blocking front.
Final 2009 ranking: 6
5. San Diego
LaDainian Tomlinson was the face of the franchise for the last decade. But he left this off-season after averaging only 3.3 yards per carry and gained a career-low 730 yards. The Chargers had already transitioned to a pass-first attack with Pro Bowl QB Philip Rivers and went 13-3 in 2009 with that approach. San Diego used a first-round draft pick on RB Ryan Mathews to balance the attack.
Final 2009 ranking: 3
6. Minnesota
Pencil Brett Favre in at quarterback. Officially, he remains undecided on his future. Unofficially, Favre underwent ankle surgery last month to restore his mobility. Don't look for Favre to walk away from football following a 4,202-yard, 33-TD passing season. But he's 40. When do his wheels start to wobble? The 21 other starters are back from a team that finished 12-4 and played into overtime in the NFC title game. This team has unfinished business.
Final 2009 ranking: 4
7. Atlanta
The Falcons return all 22 starters from a 9-7 team, and young QB Matt Ryan has another year under his belt. A healthy RB Michael Turner will energize the NFL's 16th-ranked offense; he missed five games because of injury last season. Coach Mike Smith addressed the NFL's 21st-ranked defense by signing CB Dunta Robinson in free agency and using his first two draft picks on that side of the ball (OLB Sean Weatherspoon, DT Corey Peters).
Final 2009 ranking: 15
8. New Orleans
The Saints enjoyed a magical season in 2009 -- starting with a 13-game chase of perfection and finishing with a first-ever Super Bowl championship. But can New Orleans rebottle that magic? Offensively the Saints will be fine with Drew Brees at the controls. But defensively the Saints took a hit with the free-agent defection of LB Scott Fujita.
Final 2009 ranking: 1
9. Houston
The Texans have never made the playoffs in their eight years of existence. But Houston has strung together three consecutive non-losing seasons, highlighted by a 9-7 finish in 2009. The Texans have a Top 5 offense, featuring the game's best WR in Andre Johnson, and some defensive standouts in DE Mario Williams, LBs DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing and SS Bernard Pollard.
Final 2009 ranking: 13
10. NY Jets
The Jets reached the AFC title game last season with a rookie quarterback. They are sparing no expense to take the next step, signing RB LaDainian Tomlinson and DE Jason Taylor and trading for WR Santonio Holmes and CB Antonio Cromartie. Gone is 1,400-yard rusher Thomas Jones, which will put greater pressure on QB Mark Sanchez.
Final 2009 ranking: 12
11. New England
Tom Brady is still taking the snaps, but the Patriots have become vulnerable. They have slipped from 16 victories in 2007 to 11 in 2008 to 10 in 2009. Age has caught up with the Patriots, and perennial Pro Bowlers Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel and Asante Samuel have moved on.
Final 2009 ranking: 10
12. Cincinnati
Mike Brown can't resist signing troubled-but-talented players. Last season, the Bengals added RB Cedric Benson and DT Tank Johnson and won a division title. This off-season Cincinnati signed WR Antonio Bryant and CB Pacman Jones. But it's QB Carson Palmer and CBs Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph who lead a contender.
Final 2009 ranking: 8
13. NY Giants
Last October, the Giants were 5-0 and looking every bit the best team in the NFL. But a 3-8 finish left them out of the playoffs. So which team is the real Giants? The defense collapsed, so New York sought some patches by drafting DE Jason Pierre-Paul and signing safety Antrel Rolle.
Final 2009 ranking: 20
14. Tennessee
The ball is back in the sometimes shaky hands of QB Vince Young, but bank on the Titans calling plenty of handoffs to get the ball into the hands of NFL rushing champ Chris Johnson. The Titans took steps to improve their 28th-ranked defense by drafting pass rusher Derrick Morgan and signing LB Will Witherspoon.
Final 2009 ranking: 18
15. Miami
The Dolphins needed some dramatic moves this off-season to close the gap on New England and New York in the AFC East. So Miami traded for mercurial WR Brandon Marshall and signed veteran Pro Bowl LB Karlos Dansby in free agency. But the continued development of QB Chad Henne will determine if the Dolphins can contend.
Final 2009 ranking: 21
16. Philadelphia
Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook carried the Philadelphia offense most of the 2000 decade. Both are gone. Kevin Kolb replaces McNabb and LeSean McCoy takes over for Westbrook. Coach Andy Reid bolstered the rest of his roster with 13 draft picks, including elite pass rusher Brandon Graham and versatile safety Nate Allen.
Final 2009 ranking: 7
17. San Francisco
Mike Singletary has the 49ers pointed in the right direction for the first time in a long time. All 22 starters are back from an 8-8 team, and the 49ers will be bigger and more physical up front with top two draft picks OT Anthony Davis and G Mike Iupati. Free-agent CBs William James and Karl Paymah bolster the pass defense.
Final 2009 ranking: 17
18. Pittsburgh
The Steelers are growing old on defense and must play at least the first four games of the season without franchise QB Ben Roethlisberger because of an NFL suspension for violation of the personal-conduct policy. Pittsburgh will try to re-establish its identity as a running team.
Final 2009 ranking: 14
19. Carolina
The long-time faces of the offense (QB Jake Delhomme) and defense (DE Julius Peppers) departed this off-season. Now the focus is on RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers will go as far as their legs can carry them. Matt Moore replaces Delhomme until rookie Jimmy Clausen is ready.
Final 2009 ranking: 16
20. Arizona
The Cardinals were a perennial non-contender before QB Kurt Warner arrived. He promptly delivered them back-to-back division titles and a first-ever Super Bowl appearance. But Warner retired, turning the offense over to Matt Leinart. How valuable is a franchise quarterback to a team? We'll find out.
Final 2009 ranking: 9
21. Buffalo
The Bills hired Chan Gailey as head coach and gave him a dynamic offensive weapon in first-round draft pick C.J. Spiller. The NFL's 30th-ranked run defense will be bigger up front with the signing of ILB Andra Davis in free agency and the drafting of DLs Torell Troop and Alex Carrington.
Final 2009 ranking: 24
22. Chicago
The Bears made the biggest splash in free agency, signing Pro Bowl defensive end Julius Peppers. But it will go for naught if QB Jay Cutler doesn't reduce his turnovers (a league-high 26 interceptions). The Bears hired Mike Martz as offensive coordinator to straighten Cutler out.
Final 2009 ranking: 23
23. Jacksonville
Defensive deficiencies cost the Jaguars in 2009 so they restocked the front seven. Jacksonville drafted DE Tyson Alualu in the first round, traded for MLB Kirk Morrison and signed former Pro Bowl pass rusher Aaron Kampman.
Final 2009 ranking: 22
24. Detroit
Coach Jim Schwartz addressed the offense in his first season by drafting QB Matthew Stafford and TE Brandon Pettigrew. This season, the focus is on defense. The Lions drafted DT Ndamukong Suh and signed Pro Bowl DE Kyle Vanden Bosch.
Final 2009 ranking: 31
25. Washington
The Redskins will be an old team this season. Veteran Pro Bowlers Donovan McNabb, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker have been added to the roster along with former first-round draft picks Phillip Buchanon, Adam Carriker, Joey Galloway and Vonnie Holliday.
Final 2009 ranking: 29
26. Denver
In Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow, the Broncos have unprecedented depth at quarterback. But Denver traded away two of its three leading receivers in WR Brandon Marshall and TE Tony Scheffler. An old secondary isn't getting any younger.
Final 2009 ranking: 19
27. Kansas City
Aspiring to be the Patriots, the Chiefs hired New England personnel director Scott Pioli as GM. In 2010, the Chiefs hired two coordinators who helped the Patriots win Super Bowls -- Charlie Weis on offense and Romeo Crennel on defense.
Final 2009 ranking: 26
28. Seattle
Pete Carroll was a tremendous success in the college game. At Southern Cal, he could recruit the nation's best players and stack All-Americas two-deep. But he could recruit 25 players each year in college. He usually only gets to draft seven each April in the NFL.
Final 2009 ranking: 28
29. Cleveland
New president Mike Holmgren brings a rich history of aerial success to a franchise that has historically succeeded running the football. The Browns will have to run out of necessity in 2010 with aging Jake Delhomme at quarterback.
Final 2009 ranking: 25
30. Tampa Bay
QB Josh Freeman gives the Buccaneers a chance on offense and rookie defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Brian Price give them hope on defense. But a young team and the NFL's youngest head coach will continue to struggle in 2010.
Final 2009 ranking: 30
31. Oakland
JaMarcus Russell is out and another disappointing first-round quarterback is in. After cutting Russell, the Raiders acquired Jason Campbell in a fire sale from the Redskins. Oakland will again wear out the NFL's best punter -- Shane Lechler.
Final 2009 ranking: 27
32. St. Louis
The selection of former Heisman Trophy-winning QB Sam Bradford was a great move for the future of the franchise. But rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle. Troy Aikman went 0-11 as a rookie and Peyton Manning 3-13.
Final 2009 ranking: 32
Comments