The sports headline: Stephen Strasburg faces Tommy John surgery on his elbow. Phenom out until 2012.
The hobby headline: When will collectors/speculators ever learn?
The Nationals hopes were riding on the rookie's right arm and they were watching him closely. The devastating injury to the rookie's valuable right arm is just one of a number of dangers that befall a hard thrower.
While hobby concerns pale in comparison to the toll the injury will take on Strasburg, they can't be denied.
There was plenty of hype surrounding Strasburg as he pitched his way through the minors en route to his Major League debut, June 8. He fanned 14 Pirates in seven innings that night to notch his first win. He fanned 32 batters in his first three starts -- a Major League record.
With just a couple of starts under his belt, many were lobbying for an All-Star game spot for the 22-year-old.
Collectors lined up each day at The National card show in Baltimore last month, clutching packs of 2010 Topps cards needed to get a special Strasburg Heritage rookie Strasburg numbered to 999.
In the end, he racked up 92 strikeouts in just 68 innings of work. He was 5-3 with a 2.91 ERA when his season ended. That short season included an earlier trip to the disabled list.
The hobby is littered with the remains of promising youngsters who either didn't live up to early expectations or suffered injuries.
Pitchers are especially suspect, because, as Strasburg illustrates, it can all go up in smoke in a flash.
Certainly, he can come back. Ten pitchers on this year's All-Star roster had the surgery. John Smoltz probably has a date in Cooperstown. He had it. Hard-throwing closers Billy Wagner and Brian Johnson have had the surgery.
Having a successful career doesn't equate to being held in high esteem by collectors. Once-burned collectors aren't in a hurry to return former hobby darlings to their previous lofty perches after setbacks. That's especially true for pitchers with arm problems -- no matter how successful many have been after having Tommy John surgery.
Randy Johnson might be a perfect example of how collectors can point the fickle finger of fate at a player. He reached the majors at the ripe old age of 24. At 28, he was 17-26. Collectors never jumped on his bandwagon. His 1989 Upper Deck rookie card, which today only books at $8, was readily available for a $1 or $2 for years.
No one thought he'd pitch until he was 46. Few saw his career taking a turn toward Cooperstown. Now he's a lock for the Hall of Fame after winning 303 games, finishing with 4,875 strikeouts in just 4,134 innings of work. Better than a strikeout per inning.
Da Babe can remember when folks, especially Cubs fans, were shelling out big bucks for anything signed by Kerry Wood or Mark Prior. Today they probably can't find anyone to buy the items. Prior, who hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2006, just signed minor league contract with the Texas Rangers, who assigned him to Class AAA Oklahoma City. Wood, who had Tommy John surgery, is in the Yankees bullpen along with Joba Chamberlain, yet another hard-thrower who hasn't lived up to collector expectations. He's been a mediocre reliever -- at best -- and too many collectors remember the bugs getting the best of him at Cleveland in the 2007 ALDS. Of course, that was more Joe Torre's fault for not fighting for his pitcher. Whoever was at fault, that meltdown soured collectors on Chamberlains cards.
That's right. There's no way to predict the future. Strasburg has a very good chance to come back and pitch at the same level as before the injury, but that won't be until mid-2012. If he doesn't set the world on fire right from the get-go, collectors won't be looking at him through those rose-colored glasses.
BABE NOTE: For the record, it's actually ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction. In 1974, John was the first to have it. Basically, the failed ligament in the elbow is replaced with a tendon harvested from another part of the body -- often from a hamstring or the other arm.
(Send card questions to Babe Waxpak, PO Box 492397, Redding, CA 96049-2397 or e-mail babewaxpak@charter.net. If possible, include card number, year and brand or a photocopy. Please do not send cards. For Babe Waxpak's blog, see www.scrippsnews.com/waxpak. Babe Waxpak is a feature of The Record Searchlight in Redding, Calif.)
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