MILWAUKEE -- While it's far too early to tell what will happen in the weeks and months ahead on the National Basketball Association's labor front, at least one thing appears certain.
The players are preparing for the worst.
"Obviously, we feel like what the owners are asking is way too much," said Milwaukee Bucks guard Keyon Dooling, a vice-president of the players' union. "And if we keep heading down this path, the likelihood is we'll probably have a lockout."
The league's collective bargaining agreement will expire on June 30, 2011, and if a new settlement is not reached by then, the NBA will find itself in a lockout next summer.
Proposals have been exchanged for over a year and last week NBA Commissioner David Stern and deputy commissioner Adam Silver discussed the situation with players' association director Billy Hunter and players' association president Derek Fisher of the Los Angeles Lakers.
A league spokesman said afterward that there was "frank and direct dialogue" on some key issues and that the sides agreed to meet again in December.
The two sides will meet en masse in February during all-star weekend in Los Angeles.
Dooling, speaking last week before the meeting, was asked what kind of preparations the players were making in case there was a lockout.
"Finances," he said. "Keeping your options open. Just hunkering down because at the end of the day, if there's a work stoppage and the checks aren't coming in . . . if you go through a situation like that, the more money you have in reserve, the firmer you can stand.
"(A lockout) is definitely a scary thought. Our league is probably the second most popular brand of sport in the world behind soccer."
I think it's at an all-time high, attendance-wise and television-wise, so I definitely think it would be bad for our game if we can't come to some kind of (agreement)."
Dooling was asked what he thought the public perception would be if there was a lockout.
"I'm not sure what the public perception would be," he said. "I think the public wants to see basketball being played. Sometimes when there's billionaires fighting with millionaires, it can be a little sensationalized but this is a very lucrative business -- we do about $4.3 billion -- and so it's big business. There's a lot of money that's made in this industry and we just feel like we have to get our fair share."
One of the major points of contention will be the league's desire to reduce player salary costs by about one-third ($700 to $800 million), which would mean salary cuts for players. According to the league, the NBA currently spends about $2.1 billion in player salaries and benefits.
There has also been talk of the implementation of a hard salary cap and maybe even the contraction of teams.
Are the players totally opposed to the notion of pay cuts and a hard cap?
"Not necessarily," said Dooling. "It's negotiating. So in order to keep the brand of the game intact, we might have to give on a few things. But when you talk about a hard cap and when you talk about retroactively negotiating contracts, things of that sort . . . some things are deal breakers and some things you can put on the table and talk about."
Fisher said last week that there was still plenty of time to come to an agreement, but Dooling isn't so sure.
"We don't have a lot of time," he said. "The next time the big group gets together is all-star weekend and so if we don't get a deal done or start heading in the right direction on all-star weekend, who knows?
"If we can find a happy medium, everybody would get a fair deal and everybody would be able to protect the integrity of our game. That's what I think we all want. (A lockout) is possible. Nobody wants that. The primary goal is to strike a fair deal for both sides. But a lot of blood, sweat and tears went into getting the benefits that we have."
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