As hard as NFL teams try to make it an exact science, selecting a franchise quarterback will forever remain the biggest leap of faith in professional sports.
Pick the right guy, develop him properly and you compete for Super Bowls. Pick the wrong guy and/or fail in the delicate grooming process and you take the entire franchise off a cliff.
The Minnesota Vikings took that leap when they used the 12th overall draft pick on Florida State's Christian Ponder. What we know is the selection was unpopular and unexpected. What no one knows is where this leap will land.
"It's always a crapshoot because you can't judge a kid's heart," former Eagles and Vikings quarterback Randall Cunningham said. "The Bible even says no one knows the heart of man. He might be great in college, but will he pan out when he sees that everybody is just as good as him? That answer comes from the heart."
Despite the advanced scouting, the multiple personal workouts, the intelligence testing and the psychological questioning, NFL teams still struggle with the draft, particularly when it comes to quarterbacks.
From 1999-2010, there were 33 quarterbacks taken in the first round. Five of them would qualify as home run picks: Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Rodgers. Five of them are on their way: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman and Sam Bradford.
Meanwhile, at least 13 of them are either busts or heading in that direction: Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, David Carr, Harrington, Kyle Boller, J.P. Losman, Alex Smith, Russell, Brady Quinn, Patrick Ramsey, Matt Leinart and Vince Young.
"You can judge height, weight, speed, strength of arms and athletic ability, but you can't judge how a guy handles pressure at the NFL level until he plays at the NFL level," former NFL quarterback Joe Theismann said.
In 1999, five quarterbacks were among the top 12 picks. Only two of them (McNabb and the Daunte Culpepper) ever made a Pro Bowl.
In 2000, six quarterbacks, including Spergon Wynn by the Browns, were taken before the Patriots selected Tom Brady 199th overall.
Picking a guy is only half of the equation. Developing him is the equally important other 50 percent. Poor coaching on bad teams has destroyed many can't-miss careers.
"I think the No. 1 key is to remove the pressure to play right away and instead focus on his development for the long haul," said Culpepper, the former Pro Bowl player who sat for a year after being the 11th overall pick in 1999. "I know Vikings fans might not like this, but the Packers did it the right way with Aaron Rodgers."
The Vikings have entrusted Ponder's future to new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave. A former NFL quarterback, Musgrave has worked with rookie first-round picks in Jacksonville (Byron Leftwich), Washington (Jason Campbell) and most recently Atlanta, where the Falcons re-established instant franchise stability when they picked Matt Ryan third overall in 2008.
"The key in the development is you don't want to have a young guy get crushed, both physically and emotionally," Musgrave said. "I think back to a Jim Plunkett in New England or more recently a JaMarcus Russell in Oakland, where they didn't have the best opportunity for success because the team around them wasn't good enough. We want to make sure we're good enough around Christian so he doesn't feel like it's all on his shoulders."
Whether a rookie should start or sit is an age-old question Musgrave prefers to answer on a case-by-case basis after the preseason.
"Some guys might learn best by sitting back and learning through osmosis," Musgrave said. "Most of the guys in my experience improved the most when they were making the mistakes themselves. When they were out there playing rather than watching."
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