With the high school football season approaching Aug. 17, the Standard-Examiner compiled schedules for all 19 area prep football teams and computed each team's strength of schedule (SOS) based off the records of last year's opponents.
To take it further, the SOS was weighted depending on the classification of the opponent. For example, if a 5A school is playing against a 4A school, the 5A school's SOS goes down while the 4A school's SOS goes up.
To calculate weighted SOS, a team's wins and losses are multiplied or divided by a certain number. For example, if a 4A school has a 5A school on its schedule and the 5A school had a 6-4 record in 2017, then the six wins are multiplied by 1.2, while the four losses were divided by 1.2, creating a "weighted" record of 7.2 wins and 3.33 losses.
If a team is playing up two classifications (i.e. a 4A school playing a 6A school), then the wins and losses are multiplied/divided by 1.4. The factor is 0.8 if a team plays against a team that's one classification lower, and the factor is 0.6 if it's two classifications.
For this purpose, new school Farmington is 0-0. Below is each area team in alphabetical order with its SOS, weighted SOS and a brief explanation of each team's schedule.
Click here to see a line graph with all 19 teams' strength of schedules and how they rank, or continue reading below for analysis.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .579/.566
The Bears have a tough schedule that includes both 3A finalists Morgan and Juan Diego, as well as Sky View and Mountain Crest in region play, both of which won 11-plus games a year ago. It's the second-toughest strength of schedule and weighted SOS in the area, numerically speaking.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .444/.432
Both non-region foes with winning records are 3A schools, which diminishes the Scots' SOS on paper but not in reality. Those two teams are Morgan and Juab, who should both contend for the 3A title this year.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .381/.390
Bonneville faces one team outside the 4A classification, and that's Roy. Otherwise, the Lakers play just two schools who had winning records last year: Bear River and Stansbury.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .457/.505
Each one of Bountiful's five non-region foes are 6A schools, boosting its weighted SOS more than any other area team. The Braves face a region schedule with just one team coming off a losing record, too.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .495/.471
Box Elder has a tricky schedule with Layton (6A, 0-10) and Mountain Crest (4A, 12-2) in non-region play.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .413/.410
The only reason SOS numbers are so far sub-.500 for the Falcons is because they play Layton and Davis, which combined for one win last year, and Cottonwood, which went 0-10.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .543/.521
Only two schools on Davis' schedule had a losing record last year: Bountiful (5-6) and Layton. The Darts have 5A Viewmont (7-3) in the second game, with Weber (9-2) and Syracuse (7-4) looming in region play.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .529/.538
Alta (6-5), Timpanogos (6-4), Viewmont (7-3), Woods Cross (7-5) and Highland (7-4) make for a tough first schedule for Farmington. Of the Phoenix's 10 games, only one isn't against a 5A school and that's against Northridge (6-4).
SOS/Weighted SOS: .457/.428
In SOS terms, Fremont's non-region slate includes Brighton (5A, 5-5), Pleasant Grove (6A, 4-8) and Salem Hills (4A, 6-5). In weighted SOS terms, all three non-region foes had losing records last year.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .516/.486
Since Layton was at the bottom of Region 1, the Lancers automatically have a tougher SOS. The three non-region games are against 5A schools, only one of which avoided a losing record last year (Brighton). Box Elder (4-6) and Olympus (4-6) round out the non-region slate.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .485/.505
The 1A round-robin classification means Layton Christian gets two 2A schools — North Summit (2-8) and American Leadership (4-7) — in its non region slate. That helps bump the Eagles' weighted SOS above .500.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .453/.449
Morgan gets an eclectic mix in non-region play. The Trojans' lower-classification foes are Grand (2A, 9-2), defending 2A champion South Summit (12-0), Ben Lomond (4A, 0-10) and Bear River (4A, 6-5). Two 3A North region foes combined to go 1-19 last year, but Morgan will probably get the widest mix of competition in its non-region schedule of any area team.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .506/.488
The Knights scheduled two 7-win teams from 5A (Viewmont and Woods Cross) and their region foes have a combined 28-33 record.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .343/.316
Numerically, Ogden has the weakest strength of schedule in the area, which includes Judge Memorial (3A, 5-5), Carbon (3A, 0-10) and 2A school Enterprise (2-7). The Tigers' region foes combined to go 21-38. Two of the tougher non-rivalry games will be against Stansbury (8-4) and Bear River (6-5).
SOS/Weighted SOS: .611/.617
Roy's non-region schedule is positively brutal and is, numerically, the toughest by far in the area. The 5A Royals have Syracuse (6A, 7-4), Weber (6A, 9-2) and Skyridge (5A, 12-2) in their first three weeks.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .462/.442
Don't be fooled by the numbers. Syracuse has Roy (5-5), Bountiful (5-6) and 6A darkhorse Herriman (6-6) on its schedule this year. Those are three tough non-region games.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .500/.509
Viewmont's SOS is helped with Northridge (6A, 6-4) and Skyridge (5A, 12-2). Either way, the first two games against Northridge and Davis should be interesting.
SOS/Weighted SOS: .457/.436
This is another "don't be fooled by the numbers" situation. Weber has 6A dark horse American Fork (6-5) on its non-region schedule with upward-bound 5A teams Roy (5-5) and Alta (6-5).
SOS/Weighted SOS: .413/.414
Numerically, the Wildcats' non-region foes had an 11-30 combined record. But one of them is Alta, who's expected to be a state title contender this year. Technically, Region 5's schedule has two teams with losing records a year ago, but both Bountiful (5-6) and Box Elder (4-6) were essentially a game away from a .500 record.
For most schools, scheduling at the high school level is a two-year cycle that goes with realignment unless you're Bingham or East (or in the case of this year, Orem) and can routinely schedule high-quality, out-of-state opponents.
For the others, you're sort of left with what you get. Can you control whether the teams on your schedule go 0-10 or 10-0? Nope.
In order, the toughest raw strength of schedules go like this: Roy (.611), Bear River (.579), Davis (.543), Farmington (.529), Layton (.516), Northridge (.506), Viewmont (.500), Box Elder (.495), Layton Christian (.485), Syracuse (.462), Bountiful (.457), Weber (.457), Fremont (.457), Morgan (.453), Ben Lomond (.444), Clearfield (.413), Woods Cross (.413), Bonneville (.381) and Ogden (.343).
There are a couple of flaws — 6A schools can only see their weighted SOS fall since there are no higher-classification schools for them to play. Layton Christian, as a 1A football school, can only see its SOS go up since it's in the lowest classification.