By virtue of the wild, five-point game in the regular-season matchup and Weber State’s resume deserving of a playoff seed but not getting one, its trip to No. 4 seed Montana State is the game of the week for the second round of the FCS playoffs.

It’s the only game this week featuring two teams ranked in the top 10 of the STATS FCS Top 25, with MSU at No. 3 and Weber State at No. 9 in that poll.

It’s a rematch Weber State really wanted to get at some point this postseason, though it’s as much about being tested as it is about getting revenge.

“I really believe this, I wouldn’t want it any other way,” WSU head coach Jay Hill said. “If you’re going to be great and you want to win this thing, you’ve got to beat teams like Montana State.”

So Weber State takes its usually stout defense to try and rectify its rough performance against Montana State’s elite run game — something MSU has done to almost everyone this season.

“I think when we lock in and do our job, when we simplify things, we’re really good,” WSU linebacker Winston Reid said.

With more weapons at its disposal than its had all season, Montana State will be tough. And what they do works.

“I don’t see them changing much. What they’ve done has been very successful, so why would you change? It would be dumb to change,” Hill said. “They do what they do, we do what we do, it’s going to be a battle of who does it better on Saturday.”

If Weber State’s defense can stand up to that test, the Wildcats may stand a chance. The Bobcats’ defense has not been impermeable, by any means. In the October regular-season matchup, WSU rushed for 206 yards and the passing game had its chances — Bronson Barron was 14 of 30 for 151 yards in a rainy performance plagued by receiver drops that have somewhat been a problem since.

Stats show WSU rushed for only 71 net yards because of those four infamous punt-snap safeties. By college rules, those are entered as team rushes and netted Weber negative-116 yards.

In Big Sky play, Eastern Washington only broke through the 30-point mark three times — against Northern Colorado, Portland State and by scoring 35 points against Montana State. EWU scored only 18 points per game in its other five conference games against Weber, Idaho, Montana, Cal Poly and Sacramento State.

MSU gave up 38 points to Weber and Northern Arizona in consecutive weeks, both one-score wins that came with the help of improbable plays.

None of that is to say Montana State isn’t good, but that there’s an opportunity to be the first FCS team to defeat the Bobcats if WSU can put together a mostly clean game.

TEAM VS. TEAM METRICS

Weber State’s offense averages 36 points (13th nationally) and 410 yards per game (33rd). Montana State’s defense averages allowing 27.5 points (59th) and 371.1 yards per game (57th).

Montana State’s offense averages 45 points (third) and 510 yards per game (third). Weber State’s defense allows 19.3 points (1oth) and 304.9 yards per game (eighth).

ODDS & PREDICTIONS

Jeff Sagarin, longtime college football computer ratings guru, ranks all of FBS and FCS together. His system ranks Weber State No. 95 out of 261 Division I teams. Montana State is No. 87 overall. Using his predictive element and accounting for home-field advantage, Sagarin’s formula favors Montana State by 2.8 points.

Bill Connelly, another longtime CFB statistician now at ESPN, publishes weekly predictions using his SP+ system. His formula predicts a Montana State win by the score of 33-30.

DRatings predicts a virtual pick ’em, but a Weber State win by an impossibly thin 30.3 to 29.6 margin at a 51.2% probability.

ALL-TIME SERIES

Montana State leads the all-time series 32-23-1 and has two straight wins.

Jay Hill is 68-38 in his ninth season as WSU head coach, while MSU’s Brent Vigen is 18-4 in his second season.

WEATHER

The predicted temperature at the 1 p.m. Saturday kickoff in Bozeman is 25 degrees. It should increase to about 27 degrees during the game before falling to 20 degrees at game’s end.

TV & RADIO

The game will stream via the ESPN+ subscription service with Ted Emrich and Tyoka Jackson calling the game, the same crew that called WSU’s first-round game against North Dakota. Steve Klauke and Jerry Graybeal will have the Weber State radio call locally on 103.1 FM and streaming online at www.1031thewave.com.

SECOND-ROUND SCHEDULE

Three Big Sky teams remain in action. Below is the schedule for the second round, all times Mountain, with Connely’s SP+ prediction for each one. All games stream on ESPN+.

10 a.m. — New Hampshire (9-3) at No. 8 Holy Cross (11-0); Holy Cross 35-26

Noon — Furman (10-2) at No. 7 Incarnate Word (10-1); UIW 36-32

Noon — Gardner-Webb (7-5) at No. 5 William & Mary; W&M 36-25

1 p.m. — Weber State (10-2) at No. 4 Montana State (10-1); MSU 33-30

1 p.m. — Delaware (8-4) at No. 1 South Dakota State (10-1); SDSU 37-31

1 p.m. — Southeastern Louisiana (9-3) at No. 6 Samford (10-1); Samford 38-30

1:30 p.m. — Montana (8-4) at No. 3 North Dakota State (9-2); NDSU 34-31

3 p.m. — Richmond (9-3) at No. 2 Sacramento Stat (11-0); Sac 37-27

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