One week ago was Groundhog Day and I missed it. One of the more important days of the year, celebrated every second day of February since the year 1887. This is the day when a clueless rodent with the moniker clearly not of his choosing (Punxsutawney Phil) predicts the weather for the winter season. If he sees his shadow, winter will continue for six more weeks; if he doesn’t, then spring will arrive early. Only in America (and parts of Canada). This is a brute I wouldn’t bet on.

The fact that I remain unaware of his prediction for this year comes as a bit of a surprise. In the past, I have anxiously counted down the cold and dark days of January until the very date and time when I would receive either good or bad news about the continuation of winter. After all, the real estate market is somewhat seasonally dependent.

While many of us are busy throughout the year, the coming of spring, especially in Utah, historically brings buyers and sellers out of the woodwork. There are a few reasons for this. As Utah has been rumored to be a very “family oriented” state, however family is defined, our real estate market tends to revolve a great deal around the various school schedules. Not just elementary or secondary, but also post-secondary schools. As we gear up for summer, it is important to many people to be sure their offspring finish out the year in their current school and then have plenty of time in the summer months to make friends in a new neighborhood so they can begin school with friendships formed and intact. For college-aged folks, most are too busy studying, taking tests and writing papers to take on the task of selling or purchasing a home.

There is something about the sun shining outside that initiates this process. Sometimes that can happen in February and sometimes it doesn’t happen until May. One of the most predictable things about Utah weather is its unpredictability. Ask any weather forecaster. While these professionals definitely have more science, tools and knowledge behind them to predict weather than a 137-year-old giant, brown, rat-like creature, their track record is not too far off from each other.

As far as the market goes, however, it is really sixes; half a dozen of one and six of another. While more people wait to sell their homes in the spring, more people also wait to buy until spring. In the winter, there are fewer buyers, but there is also less competition for sellers and fewer options for buyers to choose from. The difference this year, however, will be a softening of interest rates, which we have already seen. This pushes people out into the market at an even faster rate. My unsolicited prediction then is this: Spring of 2024 is going to be busier than usual. People have been waiting for interest rates to drop and for inventory to pick up and for housing prices to stabilize. We have a perfect “storm,” if you will.

Now it is quite possible I should join my little buddy Phil and climb back into my hole and stop predicting. After all, I just Googled the outcome of his activity last week and it seems that spring is coming early this year. I read this as I watch heavy, wet snow fall like confetti from the sky from my office window. It looks like it is sticking. We may be in for a longer winter than planned, but rest assured, we know how to work in the snow.

Jen Fischer is an associate broker and Realtor. She can be reached at 801-645-2134 or jen@jen-fischer.com.

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