Fischer: Housing market adjustments improving situation for buyers
Photo supplied, Jen Fischer
Jen FischerBack in the 19th and early 20th centuries, before the advent of current fire codes, building regulations and readily available portable fire extinguishers, shouting “fire” in a crowded theater was common. Milestone events such the 1913 Italian Hall disaster led to 73 people dying, not from a fire, but from the stampede that ensued from a false alarm in a crowded banquet hall.
It was the 1919 U.S. Supreme Court case Schenck v. United States, which argued that the defendant, Charles Schenck, a Socialist Party member, who had distributed leaflets urging men to resist the draft, was protected free speech under the First Amendment. He was charged under the Espionage Act of 1917 for attempting to obstruct military recruitment.
However, the non-binding statement from Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. held that it was not protected. Justice Holmes wrote the famous and oft quoted opinion: “The most stringent protection of free speech would not protect a man from falsely shouting fire in a theatre and causing a panic.”
Despite this opinion having been largely overturned since in favor of free speech, what is still true is that falsely yelling “fire” in a crowded theater is a bad idea due to the inherent risk of crowd malfunction.
The last several months I have been hearing people shouting, “market crash!” like someone in a crowded theater yelling “fire!” — except the only thing burning is buyers’ patience for overpriced listings. In truth, the housing market isn’t crashing. It’s just giving off a whiff of uncertainty. Like mistaking a scented candle for a four-alarm blaze, it is correcting itself.
One way to verify this fact is the rising inventory. For years now the housing market has been tight. Fewer listings to choose from, coupled with low interest rates, drove prices up and drove supply down.
For the first time in years, however, supply is returning to the market. There are more listings which have created more options for buyers and have eased escalated pricing. In truth, Utah is still experiencing a housing shortage. However, there is little panic. This is a sign of a healthy market.
There is also the fact that sellers are not rushing to sell their properties like it’s the last lifeboat on the Titanic. Instead, sellers are retreating. Many homeowners don’t want to sell into weakness. With the exception of situations of duress or imposed shift, potential sellers are content to stay for a while, especially if they’re locked into 3% mortgages. A slight price softening triggers a supply squeeze, putting a natural stop to further drops.
While it is true that demand has shifted, it has not disappeared. Mortgage applications are still moving in an upward direction. Buyers have taken some time to adapt, but selective patience is a factor. The negotiating is more stringent, and overpriced houses are not likely to get any action. This also plays a role in nudging the market back toward equilibrium. In turn, home values will continue to increase, but at a much slower pace.
The truth is that home prices are still somewhat elevated. For those who overpaid in order to win a bid on a house five years ago, they may see little to no increase in value for a little while still. This is not due to housing prices going down, it is simply due to paying more to begin with than the home was worth.
For buyers, this is your opportunity. The real estate market has always been cyclical. We are smack dab in the middle of the cyclical correction. Now is the time to buy. Buyers have negotiating power with both prices and concessions. There is plenty of inventory and the rudiments of real estate remain strong.
So, unless you see actual flames, it’s best to stop sprinting for the exits. The real estate market isn’t burning, it’s just adjusting the thermostat.
Jen Fischer is an associate broker and Realtor. She can be reached at 801-645-2134 or jen@jen-fischer.com.


