Macroeconomics 101 teaches that a recession occurs when gross domestic product declines two consecutive quarters. There are four components to the gross domestic product: 1. Consumption. 2. Investment. 3. Government spending. 4. Net earnings from exports. Historically investment is the most volatile component; in the Great Depression it fell 91% while consumption only fell by 49%. Investment falls when there is pervasive uncertainty. Investors like to have a level of confidence about what will happen in the next several years; with Trump’s “Tariff of the Day” approach, it’s hard to know what will happen next week. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that investment will decline.

The decline of investment coupled with the decline in government will cause consumption decline. In fact, all four components of GDP are likely to decline. The chance that the nation escapes the Trump recession is slim to none — and slim just left the building.

The economy determines public perception about presidents, as a comparison of Nixon and Reagan demonstrates. In their second terms both were engulfed in scandals. For Nixon it was Watergate and for Reagan it was the Iran-Contra scandal.

Comparing the two scandals, Reagan’s was much bigger because it entailed trading arms for hostages and a secret war against Nicaragua that killed thousands. The notion of a secret war, waged behind the back of the American people, is in anathema to the U.S. Constitution — which gives the power to make war only to Congress — and it is antithetical to a government of the people. Because the U.S. had secretly ordered Israel to ship hundreds of missiles to Iran so that Iranian money would support the Nicaraguan contras, the world saw that the U.S. had been violating the very embargo it insisted its allies respect. The colossal duplicity and hypocrisy of the U.S. was apparent to the entire world. In contrast, Watergate was a purely domestic scandal and involved the cover up of a break-in of the Democratic Party headquarters.

Moreover, Nixon’s reelection in 1972 with 60.7% of the popular vote was the biggest landslide that any Republican in history enjoyed. Data regarding the popular vote starts in 1824; in the full two centuries for which we have data only four men have crossed the 60% threshold, which the Congressional Quarterly and political scientists define as a landslide. The data shows Nixon’s win was the third strongest in two centuries; only two Democrats have ever done better than Nixon did in 1972 (FDR and LBJ). Of course, it is extremely foolish to draw any inference about the American people from the electoral college: the 1912 election showed a candidate could win 98.4% of the electoral college while winning only 41.8% of the popular vote. Reagan’s “landslides” were strictly an Electoral College phenomenon: they were not popular vote landslides.

Yet in spite of Nixon’s exceptionally strong win, less than two years later he only had 24% popular support. This disapproval was a reflection of the worst economy in a quarter century. The price of a barrel of oil had nearly quadrupled. For the first time in decades inflation hit double digits (12.2%) and the worst recession since World War II gripped the country. With the intense economic pain, the vast majority craved new leadership. Nixon’s lies with the terrible economy forced him to resign. Reagan’s lies, however, did not force him to resign; at the time of his scandal, the economy was not bad and the articles of impeachment proposed by Texas Congressman Henry Gonzalez went nowhere. A growing economy saved Reagan (and Clinton) from a Nixonian fate.

Nixon’s story suggests recessions cast presidential scandals in a much darker light. This portends that as the Trump recession visibly devastates the economy, there will be less tolerance for his lies, grift and corruption. Moreover, Trump will be more plausibly linked to his recession than any president in history. Americans will understand that Trump, and not external circumstances, pushed Humpty Dumpty (the economy) off the wall. Trump’s contempt for the American people, both consumers and businesses, with his attitude of “Let them eat tariffs” will be used against him just as Marie Antoinette’s “Let them eat cake” was used against her.

No one knows the details of Trump’s final chapter, but his penchant for recessionary policies will make his denouement resemble Nixon’s more than Reagan’s.

Rick Jones is a retired adjunct professor of economic history from Weber State University who now lives in West Haven.