I’m not sure I have the answers to any of these burning questions but these are some of the things you can wager on in the prediction markets, the two biggest being Kalshi and Polymarket.

However, using the words “wager” or “gambling” are words both Kalshi and Polymarket tend to avoid. In fact, if you go directly to the Kalshi home page, it says “Kalshi: Trade on anything”. Polymarket also prefers to use the term “trading” versus wagering or betting.

I might suggest there might be a limit on “trading on anything”. Polymarket recently put up a question on whether a nuclear weapon would be used by June and 22 percent said yes to that question. But after facing heavy criticism, Polymarket pulled the question and refunded money to those that made predictions.

How the prediction markets actually market themselves is important. Online “gambling” sites can be regulated by state governments, the prediction markets are regulated at the federal level with one of the important oversight agencies being the Securities and Exchange Commission. So laying down some money on when you think the Strait of Hormuz will open is a “trade”, not a wager.

It’s not that Kalshi or Polymarket doesn’t allow “trading” on sports outcomes. There is plenty of that. And it goes beyond making a prediction of who will win the World Series this fall or the baseball game that night. You can wager, I mean “trade,” on things within the game like if the next pitch will exceed 90 miles an hour, or if player X will get on base in his next at-bat.

It’s not hard to imagine what could go wrong with allowing people to bet (I mean trade) on just about anything. There are way too many people with the ability to get inside information to manipulate these prediction markets. Let’s say whether the United States is going to invade Iran with ground troops, there are going to be people that will be privy to this information who could wager, sorry I meant to say make an “investment”, and then make lots of money. Forget about just having inside information, there are individuals that have a direct impact on when or whether that event actually happens.

Plenty of money can be made by shorting these trades, especially if one has this inside information, or even better, the direct ability to control or manipulate events. As the odds or predictive value of how many times Trump will visit Mar-A-Lago during April are set up for traders, the President, or members of his family, can trade on the less popular choice to increase the size of their winnings. My apologies again, I meant to say increase their “investment returns”.

Or to put shorting the prediction markets in gambling terms that people might understand better, instead of betting on the favorite to win a horse race, make a wager on a horse with longer odds because of prior inside information you have. Then the horse with the longer odds wins and the payoff is way bigger than it would have been by betting on the favorite.

And by the way, Donald Trump Jr. is deeply involved with Polymarket acting as an advisor through his firm 1789 Capital. It’s not hard to see where the efficacy of Polymarket, especially when people wager or trade on world events, could come into question.

It’s not that the President himself isn’t involved deeply in this issue. Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois have tried to regulate the prediction markets but the Trump administration has sued these states saying that only the federal government should be able to regulate. So again, that’s why using words like trading and investment to describe the prediction markets versus wagering and gambling is so important. Gambling is legally seen as one of the moral issues where states have always had the ability to either allow or not allow under the 10th Amendment. Gaming is big business in Nevada for example, while in Utah it is outlawed and viewed as a detriment to society.

It must be said that insider information is not just a problem for the prediction markets. The issue or concern has always plagued the traditional stock market. And recent trading activity surrounding some announcements the President has made during the conflict with Iran have come under scrutiny. And there have been calls to prohibit policy makers from being able to trade in the stock market at all beyond traditional 401K and IRA plans. But prediction markets aren’t regulated in the same way as the stock market is generally. Currently, it is the metaphorical Wild Wild West in this space.

Beyond the concerns of corruption, there are also other worries about the prediction markets and the possible social cost. Just like a casino, Kalshi and Polymarket are there to make money, and as the old adage goes, “in the end, the house always wins.”

Prediction markets are growing in popularity, especially among younger men. Over one-quarter of young men ages 18-24 have used betting platforms, including prediction markets, in the past six months. The reasons young men are flocking to prediction markets and traditional online gambling sites are varied.

First, there is the general marketing to young men who are more vulnerable to the gamification these platforms provide. Younger men are more prone to engage in risky behavior. But perhaps the broader reason is the economy itself. As traditional paths leading to economic success and stability like home ownership are seen as less available to the younger set, the lure of making easy money through playing the prediction markets grows more appealing.

But while prediction markets use terms like trading and investment versus wagering and betting, bottom line, it is gambling and just as potentially addictive. Ultimately, prediction markets seem to be another tool for the wealthiest and connected to increase their advantage by taking advantage of the most vulnerable.

Brian E. Preece is a retired social studies educator and coach. As a wrestling coach, he was named as the 2006 Utah Coach of the Year by the National Wrestling Coaches Association. He has also co-authored three books and has been a sports journalist for parts of five decades.