But the media focus on this war with Iran also is hiding some concerning economic news and possible Black Swans for our stock market. Certainly, any armed conflict will rattle the markets and the price of oil has risen sharply in the last few days, but far before this military engagement the markets haven’t actually been tearing it up.

As we head into the third month of 2026, the Dow Jones is up but by less than a full percentage point. Not exactly the return people are looking for in their IRAs and 401Ks. And if you look at the month of February alone, the Dow was actually down over 600 points.

The tech heavy NASDAQ has seen losses in 2026, down over 700 points or over 3% since the first of the year. And February was really rough. The S&P 500 has basically broken even for the year (actually slightly up) and February has seen this index take some significant losses.

The adage that the stock market isn’t the real economy is true to a certain level. The market has seen steady growth for three years now. But as Wall Street makes profits, those on Main Street are still having a difficult time. But keep in mind if the stock market does plunge, the pain on Main Street will be even more intense. As the wealthiest ten percent cut back on their consumer spending, this will ripple through the economy because the top 10% makes up more than half of consumer spending in the United States. So basically, the wealthy spending money has kept our economy afloat as the gap between the wealthiest and poorest Americans only widens.

It’s not that the bottom 90% per se aren’t spending money. But how they are doing this is concerning. And it isn’t a new thing but has been exacerbated in recent years. Credit card debt is approaching $50 trillion and total debt in the United States is over $100 trillion, according to U.S.DebtClock.org. What is alarming is the amount of people that are using “buy now, pay later” arrangements common to buying, say, a couch at RC Willey, but now are being used by people to pay rent and even purchase groceries.

Younger people are especially struggling as teen unemployment is double digits. And many young adults are faced with huge student loan debts now coming due making it hard to launch in what people might call traditional adulthood roles. Living in your parent’s basement is all too common for 20 and even 30 somethings. This has impacted the fertility rate which is at record low of 1.6, significantly below the 2.2 replacement level.

Housing remains unobtainable for many younger couples. The average cost of a home is still north of $400,000 and it’s nearly $550,000 in Utah. Based on current interest rates, a couple would need an income of around $135,000. And of course, the traditional mortgage where one comes up with 20% down isn’t likely going to happen which forces many to take on other types of loans where they will need mortgage insurance adding another significant expense. And because of some climatic catastrophes, housing insurance in many locales such as Florida and southern California has skyrocketed. The average age of a first-time home buyer is now approaching 40. Just as a comparison, I bought my first condo in 1992 at age 26 — as a third-year school teacher who was single.

Many expect housing costs to crash which might be a benefit to the younger set but could be devastating to Baby Boomers and older members of Generation X. But some home sellers seem destined to defy reality and won’t lower the cost of their properties, or lower them enough. Much like before the financial crisis in 2008, there are some sketchy things going on in the private lending sector. Most of the time private lenders get their money from public banking institutions and a couple of them were showing cracks because of questionable practices leading JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon to imply that, “when you see one cockroach there are likely to be others”.

The job market is soft as we are generally in a “no hire, no fire” phase. I say generally as there have been sizable layoffs by some companies and how artificial intelligence might impact job losses in both the near and distant future concerns many.

But ultimately, the big thing hanging over the economy is our country’s debt. The budget deficit for 2025 is expected to be over $2 trillion and the overall government debt is fast approaching $39 trillion. Let’s just say the tariffs and DOGE did little to nothing to lower the pace of our overall debt growing. Lowering taxes, especially on the top 1%, along with increased military spending, just offset any possible gains from the tariffs and DOGE. And the interest on the said debt is actually more than the Department of Defense budget and the debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) relationship is at a 125% level. Anything approaching 100% or higher is viewed as crisis level debt for any country.

Two huge problems regarding the debt are already rearing their ugly heads.

First, many countries are getting nervous about purchasing our treasury bonds to help finance this debt. And our economic rival China owns a lot of them. If these countries lose faith that the U.S. can’t handle its debt obligations, this source of funding might dry up which will put a huge strain on our economy.

The other way the U.S. deals with its debt is printing money and lowering interest rates. This causes inflation as it devalues the dollar. President Trump wants interest rates to be lowered hoping that it might help people in obtaining housing and car loans. But while lowering interest rates might help consumers that want to spend money, it hurts people that want to save money, and again, the increased money supply only enhances overall inflation.

Some ideas like the 50-year mortgage and a year moratorium capping credit card interest rates at 10% definitely resonate to a populist base and create a weird nexus where Bernie Sanders and our President can actually agree on something.

But with the former proposed solution, it seems like we learned nothing from the 2008 financial crisis that nearly took down the global economy, much of it fueled by banks making bad mortgage loans. If a couple can’t afford a traditional, or even a FHA 30-year mortgage, I can’t imagine it’s a good idea to put them in a 50-year mortgage.

Regarding reducing credit card interest, there is the first issue of the government mingling even more with a free enterprise system. And maybe many people would take advantage of lower interest rates to pay off their debts. Yet, it seems more likely that people might spend money they don’t really have and when the interest rates do eventually rise, the final shoe drops. Beyond that, credit card companies might actually counter with restrictions making it hard for people to even obtain them in the first place.

Yes, the conflict with Iran will have economic impacts. Expect gasoline prices to go up while the stock markets remain jittery. Perhaps the war will deflect attention away from the Epstein files, but it will also deflect attention away from some big-time economic concerns as well.

Note: Statistics used based on data as of March 4, 2026.

Brian E. Preece is a retired social studies educator and coach. As a wrestling coach, he was named as the 2006 Utah Coach of the Year by the National Wrestling Coaches Association. He has also co-authored three books and has been a sports journalist for parts of five decades.