Prep football: Week 10 game previews and predictions for Northern Utah
All but one of this week’s football games are on Wednesday thanks to fall break.
Plenty of games have consequences, whether region games or non-region games.
Here’s what’s at stake in the region races.
Region 1: Wednesday determines whether the region title is shared by Weber and Farmington, or whether it’s Weber’s outright. Either way, the Warriors are region champs for the fourth time in five years.
Should Farmington win and Weber lose, the Phoenix would win its second region football title in four seasons of existence.
Region 2: Roy technically has a chance at a shared region title with West. Realistically, though, it’s over.
West has clinched a share of the championship, faces Granger on Thursday and the Panthers should win easily.
3A North: Morgan has a chance at a shared title, but the Trojans must beat Union and root for Juan Diego to beat Grantsville. Both are pretty realistic possibilities. Should the Trojans win a region championship, it would be their fifth in six seasons and 24th in school history.
1A North: This region is probably a formality for Layton Christian, which finished 3-1 in 1A North. LCA needs North Summit to knock off Duchesne to win a region title share. If North Summit does pull off the upset, the Eagles would win their first region football title in school history.
Last week’s prediction record: 9-2. Season prediction record: 91-30.
Note: Bonneville, Layton, Bear River and Viewmont do not play this week.
OGDEN at BEN LOMOND
Iron Horse Game, Game of the Week, 5:30 p.m. Wednesday
For the 69th time, Ben Lomond and Ogden will meet in the annual Iron Horse Game and 74th time overall.
Ogden leads the all-time series 51-22 and leads the Iron Horse 48-20.
As for this year’s game, the teams are a combined 3-15 and 0-8 in 3A North.
Ogden (2-7, 0-4 3A North) has the better numbers, averaging 18.8 points per game on offense while allowing 30.2 per game on defense, compared to Ben Lomond’s (1-8, 0-4) 8.6 points on offense and 39.4 on defense.
In the expected cold and wet conditions? Favor the team that can run the ball effectively out of several formations.
FREMONT at WEBER
Outright or shared region title for Weber aside, this game has playoff implications for both the Warriors and Fremont.
Weber (7-2, 5-0 Region 1) is currently No. 4 in the 6A RPI rankings, which would not only give the Warriors a first-round bye and a second-round home game, but potentially give them home-field advantage through the quarterfinals if they beat Fremont to stay at No. 4.
The Silverwolves (4-5, 2-3) are No. 17 in RPI, meaning a first-round playoff game on the road if they stay at 17. A win could vault FHS past Kearns and up to No. 16.
A loss could also do that given Fremont will add a better team to its strength of schedule (Weber) than who Kearns adds (1-8 Cyprus).
Wednesday’s game is incredibly close to call, just like most Region 1 games.
MATT HERP, Standard-Examiner file photo Weber battled Fremont in a varsity football game Oct. 4, 2018, at Weber High School in Pleasant View.
TAYLORSVILLE at ROY
Roy (6-3, 4-1 Region 2) is probably playing more for playoff position. The Royals are No. 14 in RPI and it looks likely they stay there and get a first-round home playoff game, assuming they beat Taylorsville.
Statistically, quarterback Parker Kingston has a reasonable chance of finishing the season with at least 1,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards.
He’s at 918 rushing and 813 passing yards with at least two games left in the year.
SYRACUSE at FARMINGTON
Farmington (6-3, 4-1 Region 1) has won five in a row to establish itself as the No. 2 team in the region and one of the hottest teams around.
The Phoenix, along with the potential of a shared region title, is playing for a first-round bye. FHS is No. 8 in the RPI, but its lead over No. 9 West Jordan in the standings is slim. A win likely secures the No. 8 spot and a first-round bye.
For Syracuse (6-3, 2-3), a win gives it a great chance at moving to No. 10 in the RPI, up from its current No. 12 spot. The Titans, No. 11 Riverton and No. 10 West are separated by minuscule margins.
The potential first-round opponents at 10 and 11 look better than the potential playoff foe at No. 12.
As for who wins the battle of Davis County’s two newest high schools? It looks like momentum.
DAVIS at CLEARFIELD
At stake for Davis (4-5, 2-3 Region 1) is the possibility of a home playoff game in the first round; the Darts are No. 15 in RPI and well ahead of No. 16 Kearns.
A win probably isn’t enough to catch Roy at No. 14, but a loss by Davis combined with wins from Kearns and Fremont would likely send the Darts on the road.
Clearfield (1-8, 0-5) is currently No. 22 in the RPI and well ahead of the Nos. 23-25 teams (the top 24 teams qualify).
UNION at MORGAN
Aforementioned 3A North region title scenarios aside, Morgan (6-3, 3-1 3A North) faces a Union team that throws the ball almost three times more than it runs.
If the forecast pans out, there’s a good chance of a rain/snow mix, if not sticking snow, in Morgan on Wednesday night, combined with a grass field that’s taken on a lot of moisture.
Rainy/snow conditions hurt pass-first Union more. MHS has plenty other advantages up front that should lead to a win.
LAYTON CHRISTIAN at UINTAH
Layton Christian (6-3) announced last week it added this game against 5A Uintah.
For playoff purposes, LCA was No. 5 in the 1A RPI standings after last week’s games.
That would give Eagles a first-round bye, but for a second-round road game. The No. 6 seed would mean hosting a first-round game and then likely go on the road the next round.
SKY VIEW at BOUNTIFUL
Region 5 champion Bountiful (6-2) can gain an enviable boost to its playoff seeding.
Bountiful’s No. 5 in the 5A RPI, guaranteeing the Redhawks a first-round bye and a second-round home game.
If they get to No. 4, which is possible with a win against Sky View (6-3), then the Redhawks could potentially have home games through the quarterfinals.
Running back Corbin Cottle has 100 carries for 929 yards and 13 touchdowns, with 710 of those yards in the last three games. Expect a close one, but BHS’ power run game is clicking on a whole other level for the red-hot Redhawks.
BOX ELDER at RIDGELINE
Box Elder (3-6) might have the most nerve-racking fall break if the Bees don’t win. In 5A RPI, Box Elder is No. 24, which is the final playoff spot.
The Bees likely can’t jump over No. 23 Salem Hills unless they win, so they’re probably stuck at 24 either way. Two teams — Viewmont and Maple Mountain — could get to 24 should the Bees lose.
Could BEHS gain enough in the strength-of-schedule category by playing Ridgeline (9-0) to offset a potential loss and stay at No. 24?
What about Maple and Viewmont? Does either team get enough help on its strength of schedule to get to No. 24?
They all find out Saturday.
WOODS CROSS at SPANISH FORK
The Wildcats (0-9) face the No. 3-ranked team in the 5A RPI hoping to avoid their first winless season 2003.
SF has gone 6-2 against the sixth-hardest schedule in 5A and the Dons are good enough to challenge for a semifinal berth.
Prediction: Spanish Fork
NORTHRIDGE at COTTONWOOD (Fri.)
The return game of Northridge’s (6-3) home-and-home with Cottonwood is a little more of a problem than the teams’ first meeting in September.
The Colts have gotten better and the Knights are dealing with some big injuries.
Lest anyone think Northridge will take this one easy, the Knights are No. 18 in RPI and with a decent chance of getting to No. 16 for a home playoff game.