The Utah high school baseball season concluded with May’s state championship games. Here are four thoughts on the season.

REGION REMATCHES IN PLAYOFFS

Following last week’s deep dive into which teams tend to win region rematches in the boys soccer playoffs, we look at the same thing for baseball — specifically, the last three postseasons for the five classifications of spring baseball (6A through 2A).

What happens when one team (Team A) sweeps another team (Team B) in the regular season, or wins a three-game series 2-1, then the two teams meet in the playoffs later that year?

Answer: Team A wins 68.4% of the time (including single-game playoff matchups or when considering the overall winner of a best-of-three series in 6A-4A).

Baseball teams are 65-30 in the playoffs against region teams they beat in their regular-season series, according to a survey of three seasons’ worth of results.

Broken down by classification, that 65-30 record splits out to 16-8 in 2A, 12-2 in 3A, 16-1 in 4A, 8-8 in 5A and 13-11 in 6A.

From this, we can really draw one main thing. If you’re in 6A or 5A and you either sweep or win a series against a region team, then see the same team in the playoffs, go flip a coin to figure out who wins.

Most of the time, the 6A and 5A region rematches in the playoffs are between teams of similar RPI seed and caliber, but also, 6A and 5A regions’ playoff teams tend to be more competitive with each other compared to their 4A-2A counterparts.

Some notable region “reversals” in the playoffs have been No. 14 Syracuse beating No. 3 Fremont in this year’s playoffs (after Fremont swept the regular-season series), No. 22 Clearfield beating No. 11 Davis in last year’s 6A playoffs after getting swept by the Darts in the regular season, and No. 22 Maple Mountain beating No. 1 Spanish Fork in last year’s 5A playoffs (SF swept in the regular season).

In terms of general upsets in the state baseball playoffs, those are fairly common since pitch-count rules force situations like a No. 1 seed throwing its fourth-best pitcher against a high-scoring No. 10 seed’s ace.

Looking at the 6A-4A playoffs, “better” seeds have won best-of-three-game series 92 times (74.8%), compared to the “worse” seed winning the series 31 times. It breaks down to a 41-10 record by better seeds in 6A, a 34-17 mark in 5A and a 17-4 record in 4A.

When it comes to the double-elimination “bracket play” portion of the state tournament, better seeds are 76-39 (.660) in bracket play games in 6A-4A.

Spring baseball state tournaments for 3A and 2A have a double-elimination setup from start to finish. Including single-elimination play-in games, better seeds are 115-59 (.661) in the 3A and 2A tournaments, breaking down to a 67-32 record in 3A and a 48-27 record in 2A.

So in general, you can count on anywhere from one-quarter to one-third of spring baseball playoff games, or best-of-three-game series, being upsets if current trends continue.

RARE REGION REPEAT

Fremont’s repeat Region 1 title this spring was largely expected. Most of the region coaches picked the Silverwolves at the start of the season and about halfway through region games, it was a matter of when and not if for Fremont.

The Silverwolves are now an absurd 35-1 in Region 1 games the last two seasons. Of those 35 wins, 21 have been by six-plus runs. They’ve allowed one run or fewer in 11 of those wins.

Fremont’s repeat title is the first time Region 1 has had a repeat champion since Davis in 2019.

Once upon a time, Region 1 only had title repeaters. Layton won back-to-back titles in 2013 and 2014. Davis won three straight from 2010-12 and two straight in 2018-19. Viewmont won eight straight between 2004-11.

2A FALL-BALL FUTURE

Class 2A fall baseball will have a different look to it locally.

St. Joseph Catholic intends to play spring baseball after the school added football for the coming school year. That means the Jayhawks bid goodbye to fall baseball, their home for the last few decades. The school won fall baseball region titles in 2006, 2008 and then three straight from 2013-15.

They also own one state baseball championship, ironically won in spring 1980, according to the UHSAA record book.

The crystal ball is a little cloudy on whether or not St. Joseph trots out a baseball team next spring. It depends on how many kids try out, said school principal Clay Jones.

The Jayhawks’ schedule and region setup will also change, as they’d no longer play non-football charter and private schools along the Wasatch Front. Rather, they’d play baseball against rural football-playing schools, such as North Summit and Duchesne.

Utah Military Academy will continue to play fall baseball, according to athletic director Kristin Keller. The Thunderbirds play 2A fall baseball and have done so since 2016. They play home games at Lindquist Field and are coming off a 6-9 season in 2022.

In 2020, UMA went 18-0 and won the 2A fall championship, the year before the UHSAA officially sanctioned 2A fall baseball.

The UHSAA also sanctions 1A fall baseball, where Piute High has won five straight championships and six of the last seven. Before that, Panguitch (2003, 2005, 2009, 2011-13) and Wayne (2002, 2006-08, 2010, 2015) basically took turns winning the 1A fall title.

A LOOK AT 2024

Realignment changes a few things for high school sports next school year.

Region 1 will have just six schools: Weber, Fremont, Layton, Syracuse, Davis and Farmington. Fremont finds itself in a similar spot to last year: losing and returning a handful of key players each. The Silverwolves are in pole position once again.

Davis seems most likely to challenge Fremont. Sophomore Wally Grant led the Darts in batting with a .382 average this spring, followed by freshman Kaleb Weaver’s .363 average. Three of their five pitchers were underclassmen.

Layton graduates a handful of key players, mostly pitchers. Farmington was young so the Phoenix stand to improve, while both Weber and Syracuse will have new coaches.

Roy and Clearfield both move to Region 5, joining Bonneville, Box Elder, Northridge and the south Davis County schools. It’s a small sample size, but Roy and Clearfield are a combined 2-3 against current Region 5 teams over the last two seasons. A south Davis school has won Region 5 four of the last five seasons, so it’s fair to lean that way in 2024.

Region 13 will have six schools next year when Union replaces Layton Christian, which didn’t field baseball in 2023. That means Region 13 will have teams that were seeded No. 5 (Union), No. 7 (Ogden) and No. 10 (Grantsville) in this year’s 3A state tournament. Translation: tough region.

Ogden, coming off an 18-7 record and its best season in decades, loses only four seniors but three of them started and two of those three — Ellio Saenz and Sean Garceau — combined to pitch 90 2/3 of the team’s 156 2/3 innings.

But the Tigers are expected to return six of their top seven batters next year and could be in the mix for a region title yet again.

Connect with reporter Patrick Carr via email at pcarr@standard.net, Twitter @patrickcarr_ and Instagram @standardexaminersports.

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