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Weber State football plays for high stakes while Northern Arizona seeks to be spoiler

By Brett Hein - Standard-Examiner | Nov 18, 2022
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Weber State offensive lineman Noah Atagi (79) rushes in a score against Northern Arizona on Saturday, March 27, 2021, at Stewart Stadium in Ogden.

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Weber State defensive back Parker Preator (20) drags down Northern Arizona quarterback Daniel Bridge-Gadd (10) in a Big Sky football game Saturday, Oct. 6, 2018, in Flagstaff, Ariz.

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Weber State running back Josh Davis flips the ball aside after scoring the first of four touchdowns against Northern Arizona during a game Saturday, Oct. 19, 2019, at Stewart Stadium in Ogden. Davis rushed for 328 yards in the contest, setting a new WSU single-game rushing record.

Whether or not there’s enough animus to justify an official rivalry designation between Weber State football and Northern Arizona, there’s at least enough on-field parity.

The Red Rock Rivalry trophy is on the line for the first time Saturday when the No. 7 Wildcats (8-2, 5-2 Big Sky) visit the Lumberjacks (3-7, 2-5) in what will now be an annual matchup on the Big Sky Conference schedule. Whichever way the result goes, the decision will break a 27-27 tie in the all-time series.

NAU is 18-8 all-time against WSU in Flagstaff.

“It’s always a big game against NAU and I think Coach (Chris) Ball does a good job with his teams,” WSU head coach Jay Hill said. “They’ve always played very hard against us so I always look forward to this game.”

It’s been a wild recent history. The last game inside NAU’s Walkup Skydome was in 2018 when Weber State lost 28-24. That game featured nine total turnovers and saw WSU’s Marque Collins have a 100-yard interception return touchdown called back due to an inadvertent whistle.

In 2019, the Wildcats broke a four-game skid to the Lumberjacks by winning 51-28 in a game Josh Davis rushed for a WSU single-game record 328 yards. And the spring 2021 game, of course, featured a game-ending Hail Mary from Randall Johnson to Justin Malone for a 28-23 Weber State win.

Hill is looking for his first victory at NAU, the only Big Sky locale where he has yet to win in his nine seasons. But that’s a footnote to the ultimate big picture: Weber State must win to have a chance at obtaining a top-eight playoff seed, and a win makes that possibility more likely than not.

“We need a win to get a seed. We have a lot riding on this game, and just our own pride and having the best season we can have,” Hill said. “I think our guys will respond well to this situation.”

MEET THE LUMBERJACKS

Sophomore RJ Martinez runs the Lumberjacks offensively. He nearly quarterbacked NAU to a home win over No. 3 Montana State, throwing 34 of 46 for 452 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions before the Bobcats got a semi-miraculous, 60-yard, third-down conversion pass to kick a field goal as time expired.

But the next week, Northern Arizona went to lowly Northern Colorado and got beat. The Lumberjacks have shown an ability to be competitive but have not been consistent.

Martinez averages throwing for 259 yards per game on a 64% completion clip, totaling 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Star senior receiver Stacy Chukwumezie is still a Lumberjack. He debuted this season with 15 catches for 207 yards in NAU’s first two games but hasn’t caught a pass in seven weeks. On this week’s depth chart, he’s listed as a co-starter at one receiver spot with Hendrix Johnson (51 receptions, 558 yards, 3 TD in 10 games).

Slot receiver Owen Coleman leads Northern Arizona with 53 catches for 575 yards and four touchdowns.

Draycen Hall (50 yards per game, 4.3 per carry) and George Robinson (33 yards per game, 3.5 per carry) lead the rushing attack and are listed as co-starters.

Senior safety Morgan Vest continues to be the guy defensively, totaling 91 tackles (32 more than NAU’s next-best tackler), three tackles for loss and 11 pass breakups.

TEAM VS. TEAM METRICS

Weber State’s offense averages 36.1 points and 407.9 yards per game. Northern Arizona’s defense averages allowing 28.9 points and 420.1 yards per game.

Northern Arizona’s offense averages 21.4 points and 375.3 yards per game. Weber State’s defense allows 17 points and 294.5 yards per game.

ODDS & PREDICTIONS

Jeff Sagarin, longtime college football computer ratings guru, ranks all of FBS and FCS together. His system ranks Weber State No. 86 out of 261 Division I teams. Northern Arizona is No. 173 overall. Using his predictive element and accounting for home-field advantage, Sagarin’s formula favors Weber State by 19 points.

DRatings predicts a Weber State win at 39-15 with 93.8% probability.

ALL-TIME SERIES

It might have been mentioned previously this week and in this story: the all-time series is 27-27. NAU is 18-8 at home in Flagstaff, including winning the last two matchups there.

Chris Ball is in his fourth season at NAU and has a record of 11-17 in Big Sky games. In his ninth season, Jay Hill is 49-18 in conference contests.

WEATHER

The weather matters if you’re in Flagstaff and need to drive through town, or park and walk to the stadium (daily high of 42 and sunny). But WSU gets its first dome game of the season, away from the elements.

TV & RADIO

The 1 p.m. kickoff will stream via the ESPN+ subscription service with the venerable Mitch Strohman on the play-by-play mic, accompanied by Kevin Stephens. Steve Klauke and Jerry Graybeal will have the Weber State radio call locally on 103.1 FM and streaming online at www.1031thewave.com.

AROUND THE BIG SKY

It’s rivalry week around the Big Sky. The national spotlight is on Montana at Montana State, with ESPN’s College GameDay preview show airing live from Bozeman early Saturday morning. Montana State is playing to cement a high playoff seed while there are realistic scenarios where Montana needs a win to make the playoffs. Sacramento State is playing to finish undefeated and make a serious claim for the No. 1 overall seed by hosting UC Davis in the Causeway Classic; Davis is playing to make the playoffs with a win of its own. Idaho must also win to qualify for the playoff field in its trip to Idaho State.

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