The calendar says it’s probably too early to be writing about or thinking about the Big Sky Conference football race and each team’s bid to make the playoffs.

Well, here I am.

On the second weekend of October, with most teams still having at least six games left (some, like Weber State, have seven!), there’s still plenty of football left to be played. But the results through five weeks have already drawn some lines and those results are a key storyline to Weber State’s home game this week against Eastern Washington.

While it’s too early to make clear distinctions about the conference title chase, playoff resumes are another thing. Typically, it takes seven wins over Division I opponents to make the 24-team FCS playoff field. In some rare instances, seven total wins with one over a non-DI opponent might get you in at the end of the field if resumes for teams 23 through 26 are muddied.

But generally speaking, in an 11-game season, a 7-4 overall record is the benchmark to have you firmly in the mix. In the Big Sky, playoff hopefuls typically need to go 6-2 in league play unless they compiled a stellar nonconference resume (a couple teams have done so) and, because of the strength of the conference, 7-4 would almost always have you on the right side of the bubble.

It’s probable that the Big Sky is locked into at least three playoff bids. Four spots may also be likely, depending on how results fall and how much parity comes into play. As of now, it seems what Idaho does may determine if the Big Sky could grab a whopping five bids or if the Vandals and others, like perhaps Portland State, disrupt operations enough to put four bids in question.

With that in mind, here’s a rundown of where Big Sky football teams stand as it relates to playoff qualification.

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR

Idaho State (0-5, 0-2): The Bengals kneecapped their playoff potential by scheduling two FBS games (UNLV, San Diego State) and then surprisingly struggled in losses to Central Arkansas and Northern Colorado. ISU would need to go 6-0 from here to get to 6-5 and even stand a chance. That would include two wins over current top-10 teams, so it might not totally close the book, but the improbability of such a feat makes it easy enough to say Idaho State’s playoff hopes are done.

NO MARGIN LEFT

These teams can’t afford another loss unless a sequence of unlikely events opens the door at the bottom of the 24-team field for any (maybe only UC Davis) to get the benefit of the doubt.

UC Davis (1-4, 0-2): The Aggies look the most like 2021 Weber State in that they are a good team who took one too many losses against a hard schedule. UCD lost a mostly unwinnable FBS game against Cal (for WSU last year, it was Utah) and then couldn’t quite get over the hump in a game against a team from the FCS elite echelon against South Dakota State (for WSU last year, that was James Madison). Then the Aggies lost to Montana State and Weber State (both top-10 teams) to open Big Sky play. That’s a tough break and may end up making UC Davis the best team in the country to miss the playoffs.

Northern Arizona (1-4, 0-2): NAU appeared to be living up to its top-half hopes with a road win at Sam Houston, but then the Lumberjacks came out flat against an increasingly good-looking Idaho, and again at Portland State.

Portland State (1-3, 1-1): While the Vikings indeed only have three losses, they’re the only team in this group to have a non-DI opponent on the schedule so meeting the wins threshold is more difficult. PSU beat NAU for its first win last week and next hosts fledgling Lincoln University (California) this week. After that, Weber State comes to town and could have the chance to put the clamps on others’ playoff hopes for the second straight week (more on that later).

ON THIN ICE

The margin of error is likely down to one game for these teams and the odds are against them.

Eastern Washington (1-3, 0-1): EWU is in the exact same spot as UC Davis, just with one less game completed due to an early bye. The Eagles scheduled Florida and Oregon, and open Big Sky play with Montana State (a loss) and Weber State (this week). EWU can only afford to take one more loss and if the Eagles by chance survive and beat Weber this week (WSU has won the last three in the series) with some element of desperation to the game, Sacramento State, Idaho and Montana are still to come.

Northern Colorado (2-3, 1-1): For technical purposes, Northern Colorado’s win-loss mark places it in this group, though its resume is incredibly weak with a season-opening, 12-point loss to Houston Baptist. Giving up 55 points to Idaho does not bode well for the Bears, who still have Sac State, Montana State, UC Davis and Eastern Washington ahead.

Cal Poly (1-3, 0-1): Cal Poly lands in this group by having already taken a bye week. Otherwise, a one-point home win over San Diego is the only victory on the ledger, and losses to South Dakota and Sacramento State were not particularly competitive.

TOP CONTENDERS

Weber State (4-0, 1-0): Weber State is the most well-positioned of this group due to a decisive, four-touchdown FBS victory over Utah State (none of the other in this group have an FBS win) but does also have a non-DI win on the schedule. Those don’t necessarily cancel each other out — FBS wins are always huge — but the non-DI game does change the math some if WSU starts taking losses. With wins over Utah State and UC Davis, it’s not difficult to see Weber hitting 6-0 before playing Montana State, Montana and Sacramento State in consecutive weeks. Even outside of those games, going 3-1 against the other remaining opponents (EWU, PSU, ISU, NAU) would have the Wildcats at 6-1 against DI teams, including an FBS win. The Big Sky race is a different story but, as for playoff qualification, the deck is now stacked in WSU’s favor. It’s up to the Wildcats to take advantage.

Montana (5-0, 2-0): Montana is off this week. The Griz are 5-0 with a schedule of questionable difficulty, but, with the exception of a 28-20 win at Idaho State, they’ve done what really good teams do against less-than-good competition: hammer it. Montana beat Northwestern State, South Dakota, Indiana State and Portland State by an average of 34 points each. Tougher tests await, but there’s no reason to expect Montana won’t be in the race at the top to the end.

Montana State (4-1, 2-0): Last year’s national runner-up got hammered against Oregon State and held off Eastern Washington in its toughest games. There were questions about if the Bobcats are as elite as poll voters have made them but backup quarterback Sean Chambers ransacked UC Davis last week (227 passing yards, 203 rushing, five total TDs) and has MSU looking as tough as ever.

Idaho (3-2, 2-0): Well what do we have here. First-year head coach Jason Eck has the Vandals on a three-game winning streak after well-played losses at Washington State (24-17) and Indiana (35-22). Idaho acquitted itself well in those FBS games, buying perhaps some unofficial resume credibility. While the Vandals have only beaten Drake, Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado, they’ve done so convincingly by an average of three touchdowns per win. What’s more, Idaho avoids both Weber State and Montana State this season, so things are looking up in Moscow.

BEST POSITION

Sacramento State (4-0, 1-0): Like Weber State, Sacramento State has an unquestionably convincing win over a Mountain West team (41-10 over Colorado State) but unlike Weber State, Sac State does not have a non-DI team on the schedule. For now, that puts Sac State in a class of its own. The Hornets also have lopsided road wins over Northern Iowa and Cal Poly. A win over Northern Colorado this week would check off one more box. The Hornets don’t play Montana State but also don’t play winless Idaho State. They’ll have to prove themselves, but the door to high playoff seed is very open.

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