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Dueling streaks define Weber State football’s top-five showdown at Montana State

By Brett Hein - Standard-Examiner | Oct 21, 2022

Photo supplied, Weber State Athletics

Weber State defensive linemen George Tarlas (44) and Jared Schiess (91) tackle Montana State running back Isaiah Ifanse (22) during a game Friday, Oct. 15, 2021, at Stewart Stadium in Ogden.

The three longest streaks in FCS football are at odds this week when No. 5 Weber State visits No. 3 Montana State to start a stretch of games — both for Weber State and across the Big Sky — that will decide how the top of the conference looks this season.

Weber State has won eight straight games overall. The Wildcats have also won eight consecutive road games. Both are the longest such streaks in FCS football.

Montana State has claimed 16 straight wins in Bobcat Stadium. That is the longest home winning streak in FCS football.

As if the game could feel any bigger.

Each team won the last time it went on the road in this series: 25-17 for Weber State in 2017, and 13-7 for Montana State in a knockdown, drag-out affair last season in Ogden.

“This is a very well-coached team. They’re very physical. They’ve got great talent. This is not a game we overlooked last year, and I know they’re not overlooking us,” WSU head coach Jay Hill said. “We’ve got to win the turnover margin, which we did not do last year — or we can’t lose it the way we did … I suspect the game will be very similar. Whoever executes the best in key moments, that’s going to be a big deal.”

After hanging on to win 38-35 at Eastern Washington, surviving an injury to quarterback Tommy Mellott with backup Sean Chambers, Chambers has taken off for big games as the starter and has MSU at 6-0 against FCS opponents.

This game has been sold out for some time and Bobcat Stadium is expected to be full and loud.

“We love playing on the road, we love playing in hostile, rowdy environments and playing in Bozeman, that’s exactly what we’re expecting. And we’re excited for that,” WSU sophomore quarterback Bronson Barron said.

Weber State will wear all white in this game, including new white helmets with a chromed-purple cat head logo. It’s the first time WSU has worn a white helmet in 15 or more seasons.

MEET THE BOBCATS

Chambers is now the starter, but Mellott is back and he plays, too.

Chambers has been a menace, running for 622 yards (89 per game) at 7.1 yards per carry and an FCS-leading 16 touchdowns. He’s thrown 40 of 68 (59%) for 509 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions.

Mellott has 255 yards (51 per game) at 5.2 yards per carry and one touchdown while throwing 55 of 86 (64%) for 807 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions.

Everyone likes throwing to Willie Patterson. The 5-foot-9 senior has totaled 386 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, scoring on one-third of his catches. He’s averaging 16.1 yards per reception and broke out with seven receptions for 148 yards and three touchdowns last week against Northern Colorado.

Anything run-wise from Weber State will have to go through inside linebacker (and all-time linebacker name) Callahan O’Reilly, who joined WSU defensive back Maxwell Anderson this week in being added to the Buck Buchanan watchlist (the award for the best defensive player in the country). O’Reilly has 44 tackles, or about seven per game, has two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery, and has picked off three passes.

Sebastian Valdez is stout on the defensive line (25 tackles, with nine tackles for loss including 7.5 sacks) and defensive back Ty Okada (38 tackles, one interception, six pass breakups) is another defender to watch.

TEAM VS. TEAM METRICS

Weber State’s offense averages 37.3 points and 456 yards per game. Montana State’s defense averages allowing 25.3 points and 367 yards per game.

Montana State’s offense averages 40.6 points and 479 yards per game. Weber State’s defense allows 11 points and 279 yards per game.

ODDS & PREDICTIONS

Most odds or formulas seem to have a decently clear favorite but, on the balance, putting them together makes this one still feel like a toss-up.

Jeff Sagarin, longtime college football computer ratings guru, ranks all of FBS and FCS together. His system ranks Weber State No. 77 out of 261 Division I teams. Montana State is No. 113 overall. Using his predictive element and accounting for home-field advantage, Sagarin favors Weber State by 5 points.

Bill Connelly, another longtime CFB statistician now at ESPN, publishes weekly predictions using his SP+ system. SP+ ranks Weber State No. 6 in FCS and Montana State as No. 1. The system predicts a Montana State win at 29-23.

DRatings favors Weber State 32-28 at 64% probability.

Some betting odds have Montana State favored by about 4.5 points.

WEATHER

Kickoff at Bobcat Stadium is at 1 p.m. and both teams will be facing weather that’s something other than warm for the first time. The forecast in Bozeman calls for a high of 44 degrees with rain expected most of the day. It will be 41 degrees at kickoff and about 43 at game’s end.

TV & RADIO

Saturday’s broadcast is unique due to one rarity: a Weber State road game will be carried over the air in Utah. This is due to the Big Sky’s TV deal with Scripps TV stations, which in some way has deferred that option in Utah to Sinclair, who owns KUTV and KJZZ.

So Saturday’s game, which is a 1 p.m. kickoff, will air on KJZZ TV in Utah and via the ESPN+ subscription service. Ben Creighton, Ty Gregorak and Ashley Washburn will be on the call.

Steve Klauke and Jerry Graybeal will have the Weber State radio call locally on 103.1 FM and streaming online at www.1031thewave.com.

ALL-TIME SERIES

Montana State leads the all-time series 31-23-1. Montana State won the last matchup, a 13-7 triumph in Ogden in 2021. The series is 15-10-1 for games played in Bozeman; the last game in Bozeman was a 25-17 win for Weber State in 2017.

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