Weber State football aims to maintain series supremacy against up-and-coming Idaho State
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- Weber State defenders Sione Lapuaho, left center, and Mitchel Maxfield (39) converge on an Idaho State ball-carrier Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021, in Pocatello, Idaho.
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- Weber State receiver Jaden Thrower (85) runs with a reception as Idaho State defenders Jude Joseph, rear, and Quantraill Morris-Walker (9) pursue Saturday, Nov. 12, 2022, at Stewart Stadium in Ogden.
Weber State and Idaho State football teams were headed in opposite directions this season until their last games, leading to the yearly clash between the teams 120 miles apart on Interstate 15.
This season’s game is scheduled for 4 p.m. Saturday at the newly renovated Holt Arena.
Both teams are 3-5 overall but the Bengals are 3-2 in Big Sky play while the Wildcats are 1-4. Idaho State fought closely with now-No. 4 Montana, scored 28 unanswered to nip Eastern Washington 42-41, and handled Portland State 38-24.
Meanwhile, Weber State spun its wheels in a shutout loss to Montana State and fell flat in a home loss to Northern Arizona, while miraculously grasping victory from the jaws of defeat at Northern Colorado.
But WSU gave the ball to a new quarterback two games ago. True freshman Richie Muñoz committed key turnovers in a 17-16 loss to UC Davis, then helped pass Weber State to a third-quarter lead at Eastern Washington before a crucial sideline penalty and the Eagles unexpectedly turning fully to a specialized run package got EWU a 31-23 win.
Idaho State’s good vibes under new head coach Cody Hawkins took a hit last week with a 51-16 loss to No. 7 Sacramento State while Weber State retooled during its bye week.
Despite getting deep into conference play, Weber State and Idaho State have few common opponents. Eastern Washington and Northern Colorado are the only shared Big Sky opponents (both teams beat the Bears).
The only other common opponent is Northern Iowa, currently ranked 18th nationally. Weber State went on the road and beat the Panthers 34-17 and, the next week, UNI went to Pocatello for a 41-17 win over the Bengals.
Otherwise, upward-trending Idaho State is looking to get a win against Weber State for the first time in the last 10 tries. In fact, Weber State is 36-3 in the last 39 meetings of the series.
MEET THE BENGALS
Idaho State’s offense is improved under first-year head coach Hawkins — son of Dan and former offensive coordinator at UC Davis. But the Bengals don’t play like the Aggies did; Idaho State is receiver-based while the Aggies under Hawkins’ charge favored heavier looks with skilled tight ends and a stronger run game.
“They do some unique things that put you in predicaments, from the passing game standpoint,” WSU head coach Mickey Mental said. “It’s conceptually the same but he’s doing it with different personnel … very creative, does a great job of using leverage against you.”
ISU has gone between two quarterbacks, sometimes within the same game: sophomore Jordan Cooke (No. 1) and 6-foot-4 junior Hunter Hays (No. 7).
Hays has had his hand in the QB role there for a few seasons, often in run packages — he leads ISU in rushing this year at 27 yards per game. Cooke has thrown for 1,815 yards (227 per game) with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions, with Hays adding another 769 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions.
And last week against Sacramento State, a third QB — freshman Jackson Sharman (No. 8) — made his collegiate debut. Those three combined to throw 30 of 56 for 292 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions with Hays, not Cooke, accounting for more than half of all those numbers.
So it’s somewhat difficult to know who will be throwing the ball for the Bengals. But the top targets will be the same: Chedon James (No. 2) averages 89 yards per game and has hauled in a team-high seven touchdown passes, and the big, physical Christian Fredericksen (No. 15) is at 84 yards per game at 15 yards a pop with three touchdowns.
Alfred Jordan Jr. (No. 9) and Cyrus Wallace (No. 17) are both near 50 yards per game with two touchdowns as well.
In short: Idaho State is a pass-first, pass-always team, aside from Hays occasionally pulling it down to run.
Defensively, junior safety Calvin Pitcher (No. 6) leads ISU in tackles with 63. Defensive lineman Cortland Horton (No. 29) has 31 tackles including six for loss and three sacks, with four QB hurries. Defensive lineman David Rowe (No. 96) has 7.5 tackles for loss with three sacks.
TEAM VS. TEAM METRICS
Through eight games, Weber State is averaging 19.1 points and 279 yards per game, averaging 4.5 yards per play. Defensively, WSU gives up 24.3 points and 375 yards per game on a 5.4 yards-per-play average.
Idaho State averages 28 points on 406 yards per game offensively, averaging 5.7 yards per play. Defensively, the Bengals allow an average of 40 points per game on 484 yards and a 6.5 yards-per-play average.
ODDS & PREDICTIONS
Jeff Sagarin ranks Weber State No. 152 in all of Division I (FBS and FCS). Idaho State is No. 195 overall. Including accounting for home-field advantage, his formula favors Weber State by 8.3 points.
Bill Connelly ranks Weber State at No. 49 in FCS and Idaho State at 85. His formula predicts a Weber State win 31-22.
D Ratings predicts a Weber State victory of 33-27 at 69% probability.
WEATHER
Saturday’s weather is a high of 60 in Pocatello, but the game will be inside weather-controlled Holt Arena.
TV & RADIO
The game will stream on the ESPN+ subscription service, available via watchespn.com and on the ESPN streaming/mobile app.
Steve Klauke and Jerry Graybeal will have Weber State’s radio call on 103.1 FM in northern Utah and online at www.1031thewave.com.
ALL-TIME SERIES
Weber State has a 48-15 lead in the all-time series, including a 23-10 mark in Pocatello. Idaho State has defeated WSU three times since 1985.