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Weber State defensive tackle Zeke Birch, center left, dives to hit Montana quarterback Keali'i Ah Yat (8) on Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024, in Missoula, Mont.

Robert Casey, WSU Athletics

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Weber State linebacker Winston Reid (6) meets Montana running back Marcus Knight for a tackle during a Big Sky Conference game Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022, at Stewart Stadium in Ogden. (ISAAC FISHER, Special to the Standard-Examiner)

ISAAC FISHER, Special to the Standard-Examiner

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Weber State football moves on from a mistake-induced home loss against Eastern Washington to a bout with a juggernaut as No. 3 Montana comes to Stewart Stadium on an 8-0 start to its season.

The Griz bring one of the best offenses in the FCS and are likely to bring one of the best travel groups as well. Weber State is on a three-game win streak against Montana, a rare feat for anyone in the Big Sky, but last season’s Week 6 win came with WSU featuring several top-end skill players throughout. This time, the injury-plagued Wildcats are licking their wounds in Week 9, out to a 3-5 start.

“We’ve got to minimize bad plays,” senior offensive lineman Gavin Ortega said. “We played some good football, but it’s the bad plays that kill us; it’s two or three plays. So that will be the main thing this week.”

The diagnosis sounds familiar coming out of a three-point game where one bad punt return and one bad snap decided the game against EWU.

“From 20 to 20, we were really good on offense. It’s capitalizing on touchdowns not field goals in the red zone; we score 2 out of 2, we win the game,” WSU head coach Mickey Mental said. “Special teams, we can’t lose field position by double digits. So it’s back to the basics and making sure we’re getting our best effort.”

INJURY REPORT

Injuries are piling up. After losing top two quarterbacks Jackson Gilkey and Cash McCollum, and starting slot receiver and kick returner Noah Kjar, to season-ending injuries through just four games, the Wildcats are now without their top two running backs in Davion Godley and Chauncey Sylvester. Both suffered season-ending injuries to knee ligaments and/or cartilage in the loss to Eastern Washington.

Starting defensive end Josh Hardy is also out with a knee injury. Starting cornerback Ishaan Daniels is questionable.

LOCAL HOMECOMING

Another Northern Utah native is making a homecoming in a game at Weber State.

A few weeks after former Northridge High player Jaxon Fresques came to WSU with Sacramento State, it’s senior offensive lineman Cannon Panfiloff (Roy) getting some hometown run with visiting Montana. Panfiloff, who began his college career at Utah Tech before transferring to Missoula, is making his 24th start on the offensive line with the Griz this week.

MEET THE GRIZ

The task is tall against Montana’s offensive playmakers.

“Being aware of the two running backs, Wortham and Gillman. Those two are really good,” Mental said. “Tackling, staying in good down and distance, staying in second-and-long, third-and-long, making them as one-dimensional as possible.”

That’s X-factor Michael Wortham (No. 6) and workhorse running back Eli Gillman (No. 10).

Wortham does it all, leading the country in all-purpose yards. He leads the Griz at 86.3 receiving yards per game with six touchdowns and 14.7 yards per reception. He’s second in rushing at 28 yards per game, but with five touchdowns and 6.4 yards per carry. He’s 2 for 2 for 49 yards and a touchdown through the air. And he averages 27.8 yards per kickoff return with occasional good appearances as a punt returner.

Gillman is as strong as ever, rushing for 105.4 yards per game on 5.9 per carry, and has 12 rushing touchdowns in eight games; the junior has 2,980 career rushing yards (fifth all-time at Montana) and 40 touchdowns (tied for fourth).

Keali’i Ah Yat (No. 8) is much improved at quarterback. The sophomore throws for 279.8 yards per game on a 68.1% completion rate, with 17 touchdowns to seven interceptions.

The last time an Ah Yat quarterbacked the Griz against Weber State in Ogden, it was his father, Brian, in 1998. Though Brian was a two-time Big Sky offensive MVP, including that season, WSU got the win in 1998 (27-20) with a fourth-quarter rally; Ah Yat threw for 217 yards and two interceptions.

TEAM VS. TEAM METRICS

Against six FCS opponents, Weber State has averaged 30.3 points on 369.7 yards per game, including a 5.57 yards-per-play average. Defensively, the Wildcats give up 29.5 points on 381.8 yards per game and 5.74 yards per play.

Pulling even after playing Portland State, Weber State’s turnover margin is negative again after the EWU game, now totaling minus-three. Weber State has lost 14 turnovers (12 interceptions, two fumbles) while taking away 11 (eight interceptions, three fumbles).

WSU averages 4.6 penalties per game for 43.3 yards.

For Montana, against seven FCS opponents and one Division II foe, the Griz average 41.5 points on 476.9 yards per game, with a 6.7 yards-per-play clip. Defensively, UM allows 24.1 points on 399.6 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.

Montana is plus-four in the turnover margin. The Griz have given the ball away nine times (seven interceptions, two fumbles) while taking away 13 turnovers (10 interceptions, three fumbles).

The Grizzlies are penalized an average of five times for 45.5 yards per game.

ODDS & PREDICTIONS

Jeff Sagarin ranks Weber State at No. 193 in all of Division I (FBS and FCS, 265 total teams). Montana is 89. Including home-field advantage, his formula favors Montana by 14 points.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks Weber State at No. 82 in FCS (129 teams) and Montana at No. 7. His formula predicts a 44-20 blowout for Montana.

D Ratings predicts a Montana victory of 41-16 at 95% probability.

WEATHER

Saturday should be a gorgeous fall afternoon with a forecasted high temperature of 63 degrees and partly cloudy skies. The forecast calls for 58 degrees at the 1 p.m. kickoff, warming to 63 by game’s end, with a breeze milder than last week’s wind.

TV & RADIO

Through the Big Sky’s partnership with Scripps stations, the game will broadcast in Utah over the air on Utah 16. The traveling crew of Trey Bender and Jordan Tripp has the call, with Kyle Hansen providing sideline reporting. That broadcast will also stream on the ESPN+ subscription service, available on the ESPN app or WatchESPN.com.

Weber State’s radio call, with Carl Arky and Jerry Graybeal, airs in Utah on 103.1 FM and online at 1031thewave.com.

ALL-TIME SERIES

Despite recent history, Montana leads the all-time series 40-18. Weber State has won five of the last six, including three straight overall and three straight in Ogden. Montana’s only win in Ogden since 2006 came in 2012.