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Weber State's Matt Herron (97) wraps up UC Davis running back Trent Tompkins (18) on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, at Stewart Stadium in Ogden.

BRIAN WOLFER, Special to the Standard-Examiner

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Weber State cornerback Eddie Heckard (5) rises to break up a UC Davis pass attempt Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022, in Davis, California.

ROBERT CASEY, Weber State Athletics

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Any time Weber State plays UC Davis, it feels like a barometer to measure the season.

Under second-year head coach Tim Plough, No. 9 UC Davis is strong while showing some possible flaws, while Weber State would like to prove it’s better equipped to compete in the Big Sky this season.

What seems possible, though, is the end of a low-scoring trend. Each of the last four meetings between WSU and UCD has been decided in games with both teams scoring in the teens. WSU’s 36-20 win in 2019 was the last time that wasn’t the case.

Weber State averages 40 points per game against two FCS opponents and has shown defensive lapses in spurts that lead to long touchdown plays. UC Davis is good at those big-play touchdowns, averaging 40.5 points per game against two FCS opponents.

The Wildcats are focused on putting together their first four quarters of what coaches call “clean” football on both sides of the ball as they play their fourth road game in the first five weeks.

“Being diligent in your craft, having winning technique, winning effort,” WSU head coach Mickey Mental said about what it takes to slow down UC Davis. “Running to the football hides a lot of things. And just playing gap sound and flying to the football.

“They do a good job with tempo, so making sure we have good alignment and good eyes.”

INJURY NOTES

Two WSU defensive starters — defensive end Keahnist Thompson and linebacker Sione Hala — are expected to return after missing last week’s home game against Butler.

MEET THE AGGIES

UC Davis (2-1) gave the ball to freshman quarterback Caden Pinnick (No. 12) to start the season and he’s solidly delivered on the team’s hopes. He throws for 155 yards per game on 61.7% completion, throwing six touchdowns to two interceptions. Senior receiver Sam Gbatu Jr. (No. 8) and sophomore Stacy Dobbins (No. 7) are easily Pinnick’s top targets, combining for 20 of the team’s 48 receptions and half of the team’s 560 receiving yards.

The Aggies put on a show last week in front of a school-record 17,217 fans in a 50-34 win over Southern Utah. Jordan Fisher (No. 20, 170 yards) and Carter Vargas (No. 1, 136 yards) tallied the eighth time in program history two Aggies each rushed for 100 yards in a game.

Defensively, Utah native and safety Rex Connors (No. 4) is now the program’s all-time leader in tackles. He leads UCD with 36 tackles this season (12 per game). Nate Rutchena (No. 8) has two interceptions while Jacob Psyk (No. 94) and Sam Goligoski (No. 31) each have two sacks.

Defensive back Khalani Riddick (No. 1) is dangerous in punt return, averaging 19.4 yards on five returns — second-best in the country.

TEAM VS. TEAM METRICS

Since UC Davis played a Week 0 game at Mercer that was declared a no-contest due to lightning, both teams have faced two FCS opponents headed into the Big Sky opener. The Aggies lost 70-10 at Washington while WSU suffered lopsided losses at James Madison and Arizona.

Against FCS teams, Weber State averages 40 points on 444 yards per game, including a 6.6 yards-per-play average. Defensively, the Wildcats give up 32.5 points per game on 392.5 yards and 5.9 yards per play.

Overall, Weber State remains solidly in a negative turnover margin at minus-five. Weber State has lost 10 turnovers (nine interceptions, one fumble) while taking away five (four interceptions, one fumble).

WSU averages 5.75 penalties for 58.8 yards per game.

For UC Davis, against FCS opponents, the Aggies average 40.5 points on 468 yards per game and a whopping 7.7 yards per play. Defensively in those two games, UCD allows 29 points on 451 yards per game, with a per-play average of 5.6 yards.

UC Davis is plus-six in the turnover margin. The Aggies have given the ball away only three times (two interceptions, one fumble) while taking away six turnovers (three interceptions, three fumbles).

The Aggies are penalized an average of 6.3 times for 54.3 yards per game.

ODDS & PREDICTIONS

Jeff Sagarin ranks Weber State at No. 171 in all of Division I (FBS and FCS, 265 total teams). UC Davis is at No. 129. Including home-field advantage, his formula favors UC Davis by 11.5 points.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks Weber State at No. 58 in FCS (129 teams) and UC Davis at 17. His formula predicts a UC Davis victory of 40-25.

D Ratings predicts a UC Davis victory of 37-20 at 88% probability.

WEATHER

Cooling off from mid-90s this week, Saturday’s high is set for 84 degrees in Davis. But the sun sets just before the 7 p.m. local kickoff (8 p.m. MDT) with clear skies and temperatures at 71 degrees. That will drop to 63 degrees at game’s end.

TV & RADIO

The game broadcast streams on the ESPN+ subscription service, available on the ESPN app or plus.espn.com. Scott Marsh and Scott Gordon have the mic for that broadcast. Weber State’s radio call, with Carl Arky and Jerry Graybeal, airs in Utah on 103.1 FM and online at 1031thewave.com.

ALL-TIME SERIES

Weber State leads the all-time series 7-4 and has won the last three games in Davis (3-1 overall). The Aggies won the last matchup in 2023, a 17-16 decision in Ogden.