OGDEN — When No. 7 Weber State football hosts No. 24 Eastern Washington on Saturday, it will be a matchup of two teams trending in opposite directions — and in opposite situations from the game last season.

The Wildcats (4-0, 1-0 Big Sky) are riding the wave of an FBS win over Utah State and held on for a tough road win at UC Davis for only the third 4-0 start in program history. The Eagles (1-3, 0-1) are hanging on to a national ranking and playoff hopes after taking blowout losses to Oregon and Florida, and losing at home to Montana State.

Last year, Weber State staged a 35-34 upset of the top-10 Eagles as it needed to win just about every week to make the playoffs while EWU was in good postseason shape. This year’s game is earlier in the calendar but appears to be the inverse: the Wildcats are building more cushion each week, while Eastern is now the team desperate to win each week.

Even so, Weber State was nothing but respectful of the Eagles in interviews this week. The assumption is WSU will see a tough offense and a well-coached team, regardless of what records say.

“We have all the respect for E-Wash. We know they’re a great team, they’re a great program. We know it’s going to be a dogfight with them every year, like it was last year,” WSU sophomore quarterback Bronson Barron said. “We’re expecting that same thing this year.

“We had that conversation as a team that roles are flipped this year and we can’t allow ourselves to overlook them. The record might not show how good E-Wash is but look at the schedule … we realize we have to prepare the same way for them as we would a Utah State or any other team.”

There’s one glaring statistic blindingly overtaking the outlook of this game: Eastern Washington has the worst run defense in the country at the FCS level, and by a considerable margin. In four games, the Eagles are allowing 295.5 rushing yards per contest, including a third-worst 6.22 yards per carry.

While it’s no doubt a factor that EWU has played road games at Oregon (263 yards) and Florida (274), the Eagles curiously gave up more rushing yards at home to its two FCS opponents. Tennessee State, who is 0-4 this season and lost to a Division II team last week, ran for 290 yards in Eastern’s season opener, a game EWU won 36-29. Montana State, a team missing its top two or so running backs every week, racked up 355 rushing yards against Eastern.

Needless to say, there seems to be an opportunity for Weber State. The Wildcats, who have been more explosive in the passing game than in years past, are also rushing for a solid 197 yards per contest. WSU’s baseline offensive goal each game is to run and pass for 200 yards each; rushing only at its 197-yard average would be well below what other teams are doing against the Eagles.

Eastern will also take a crack at being the first team to score more than 14 points against a Weber State defense that has allowed just three touchdowns this season and allows 2.85 yards per carry.

There’s another glaring circumstance at play, too: While Weber State was resting on a bye last week, Eastern Washington’s impossibly long road trip to Florida was delayed one day. The game was staged on Sunday to avoid the effects of Hurricane Ian. So that flight home took place a day later than expected and the last time Weber faced a team making such a long trip home, they defeated Utah State (coming back from Alabama) 35-7.

That might not decide the game but, combined with EWU’s struggling run defense, it’s an undeniable factor in how the game shapes up.

Weber State has won the last three meetings of the series, including the only one in Ogden in the eight previous seasons Jay Hill has been head coach, which was a 14-6 win in 2018.

MEET THE EAGLES

Perennial national-award candidate Eric Barriere is no longer slinging the rock for Eastern Washington.

Senior quarterback Gunner Talkington finally has his turn behind center after getting experience in EWU blowout wins in years past. He’s not as dynamically elusive as Barriere but then again, who is? In four games, he’s thrown for 886 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions while completing 62% of his passes.

“I think the quarterback they’re playing with right now is very similar to Barriere. He moves around the pocket well, he gets the ball out of his hand, he’s accurate,” Hill said. “He’s played a lot of good football for them.”

Talkington throws most often to Efton Chism III (21 catches, 204 yards, 3 TD) and most explosively to Freddie Roberson (15 catches, 276 yards, 2 TD).

EWU has shown it can move the football, even against the likes of Florida. Leading rusher Micah Smith (35 carries, 187 yards, 2 TD) is running at 5.3 yards per carry, and Justice Jackson chips in at 24 yards per game.

Defensive back Ely Doyle (28) and linebacker Derek Tommasini (25) lead the Eagles in tackles. On the defensive line, Mitchell Johnson and Soli Paleso’o each have two sacks. Eastern has forced five turnovers defensively in four games.

ODDS & PREDICTIONS

Jeff Sagarin, longtime college football computer ratings guru, ranks all of FBS and FCS together. His system ranks Weber State No. 99 out of 261 Division I teams. Eastern Washington is at No. 162 overall. Using his predictive element and accounting for home-field advantage, Sagarin favors Weber State by 15 points.

Bill Connelly, another longtime CFB statistician now at ESPN, publishes weekly predictions using his SP+ system. SP+ ranks Weber State No. 9 in FCS and Eastern Washington is No. 28. The system predicts a Weber State win at 36-26.

DRatings predicts a closer margin, favoring Weber State by a score of 35-30 at 67% probability.

WEATHER

Kickoff at Stewart Stadium is at 6 p.m. Saturday and a historically warm year has continued well into October. The day’s high is expected to be 78 degrees. At kickoff, the forecast calls for a temperature of 75 degrees. Sunset is at 6:57 p.m. and it should be around 64 degrees at game’s end.

TV & RADIO

The game will be broadcast on KJZZ TV in Utah, while also streaming on the ESPN+ subscription service, with Dave Fox, Alema Harrington and Tony Parks on the call.

Jon Oglesby and Jerry Graybeal will have the Weber State radio call locally on 103.1 FM and streaming online at www.1031thewave.com.

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