Weber State football hosts Northern Arizona for first Red Rock Rivalry game in Ogden
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- Weber State receiver Ty MacPherson (1) holds up the newly minted Red Rock Rivalry trophy after WSU defeated Northern Arizona 33-31 on Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022, in Flagstaff, Ariz.
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- Weber State’s Doug Schiess, center, wraps up Northern Arizona’s Coleman Owen, right, in a game Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022, in Flagstaff, Ariz.
The name of the trophy aside, there’s definitely a reason Weber State and Northern Arizona agreed to create an official rivalry.
With the all-time football series tied 27-27 after Weber State won on a Hail Mary in 2021, the two schools played the first Red Rock Rivalry last November. The game featured four lead changes in the fourth quarter, capped when Kyle Thompson won the game for WSU on a 23-yard field goal with five seconds left.
Now the obelisk-like trophy, with red mountains carved into the top, resides in Ogden and the No. 13 Wildcats (3-2, 1-1 Big Sky) will defend it for the first time against the Lumberjacks (1-4, 1-1).
Things didn’t look good after NAU got run off its home field by Utah Tech a few weeks ago. But the ‘Jacks made a QB change and handled Montana in a 28-14 victory. Last week, Northern Arizona led now-No. 4 Sacramento State after three quarters before falling 31-30.
“We expect it to be a game with them,” WSU head coach Mickey Mental said. “I think that anybody in the Big Sky, you should expect that.
“They had like 30 transfers so some of it is just guys getting comfortable there. There’s culture, there’s scheme. Coach (Chris) Ball does a fantastic job of making sure his team is prepared.”
MEET THE LUMBERJACKS
The aforementioned quarterback is freshman Adam Damante (No. 12). After helping a semi-rally against Utah Tech, Damante started the two Big Sky games. He’s completed 71% of his passes this season and has thrown for 204 yards per game, with two touchdowns and three interceptions, in the two conference games.
Damante isn’t a run threat but has proven, aside from a slight propensity to throw interceptions, a good distributor of the football.
“That kid’s played well,” Mental said. “He’s going to put his guys in position to be successful.”
Devon Starling (No. 5) is the featured back, totaling 369 yards this season after rushing 21 times for 117 yards against Sacramento State. Chase Belcher (No. 0) is the secondary back; he totaled 72 yards on nine carries last week.
Of five receivers with at least 10 receptions this season, Owen Coleman (No. 6) is still Mr. Reliable for the Lumberjacks. He has 25 catches for 327 yards and two touchdowns this season.
Freshman defensive back Alex McLaughlin (No. 17) has been a playmaker so far. He leads the team in tackles with 38, including 3.5 for loss and 1.5 sacks, one interception and four pass breakups.
Senior defensive lineman Eloi Kwete (No. 36) has been disruptive: of 22 tackles, he has five for loss and 4.5 sacks.
“Being multiple defensively, they play downhill and they play fast and violent,” Mental said.
NAU has forced four turnovers in five games this season (two fumbles, two interceptions) and has given away 10 (four fumbles, six interceptions). The Lumberjacks have been better at stopping the run than the pass so far this season.
TEAM VS. TEAM METRICS
Through five games, Weber State is averaging 20.8 points and 281.8 yards per game, averaging 4.5 yards per play. Defensively, WSU gives up 23.8 points and 392.2 yards per game on a 5.7 yards-per-play average.
Northern Arizona averages 23.8 points on 399 yards per game, averaging 5.5 yards per play. Defensively, the Lumberjacks allow an average of 34 points per game on 393 yards and a 6.1 yards-per-play average.
ODDS & PREDICTIONS
Jeff Sagarin ranks Weber State No. 15 in FCS and No. 131 in all of Division I (FBS and FCS). Northern Arizona is No. 183 overall. Including accounting for home-field advantage, his formula favors Weber State by 12.5 points.
Bill Connelly ranks Weber State at No. 21 in FCS and Northern Arizona at 65. His formula predicts a Weber State win 35-18.
D Ratings predicts a Weber State victory of 37-18 at 89% probability.
WEATHER
Rain earlier this week in Ogden has given way to gorgeous fall weather. Saturday’s forecast calls for sunny skies and a high of 75 degrees. At 6 p.m. kickoff, the temperature at Stewart Stadium will be just over 70. By game’s end with the sun down, expect 60-degree temperatures and dropping.
TV & RADIO
With Tony Parks on the call, the game broadcast will stream on the ESPN+ subscription service available at watchespn.com and the ESPN mobile/streaming device app.
Weber State’s radio call is slated for 103.1 FM in Utah and 1031thewave.com online with Steve Klauke and Jerry Graybeal on the mic.
ALL-TIME SERIES
Weber State’s 28-27 all-time advantage has included definitive streaks in the last 15 years to coincide with several closely contested games. Weber State won four straight from 2008-11, NAU won four straight from 2014-18, and WSU is currently on a three-game winning streak starting in 2019.