Weber State, UC Davis meet in likely football playoff elimination game
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- Weber State quarterback Kylan Weisser (16) surveys the defense as UC Davis linebacker James Scharetg (33) prepares for the snap Saturday, Sept. 26, 2021, at Stewart Stadium in Ogden.
Weber State and UC Davis are putting together a string of nailbiting games against each other and now, that streak leads to the Wildcats and Aggies both playing what both sides must feel is a too-early playoff eliminator in a 6 p.m. Saturday kickoff for WSU’s homecoming.
Both teams have a big loss to a ranked Pac-12 team. Weber State (3-3, 1-2 Big Sky) has the better win (at Northern Iowa) but also has a non-DI victory, and UC Davis (3-3, 1-2) has, so far, only lost to good teams.
A head-to-head resume evaluation aside, Weber State feels like the program in serious need of figuring something out, while Davis feels its usual self with competitive home losses to Eastern Washington and Montana.
If there’s a hope the game can turn out like the last three (final scores: 17-12, 17-14, 18-13), it might be that a usually strong Davis defense got beat up a bit by a previously stagnant Montana offense in a 31-23 loss.
But that would require Weber State to find answers like the Griz did last week.
In a change that’s currently subtle until its on-field effects are known, junior Kylan Weisser is now listed as co-starter at quarterback with sophomore Creyton Cooper on WSU’s depth chart.
“You’re going to do your self-scout, see what you’re running well, see what areas you’re doing well and not try to mess that up,” head coach and offensive coordinator Mickey Mental said in a video interview published by the school. “Then go back to the basics and correct technique. I don’t think we have an effort issue.”
Defensively, Weber State has been up to snuff when it comes to being competitive and putting the team in position to win games. Northern Arizona’s offense netted 13 points in straight-up situations last week, but the Lumberjacks scored on a punt return and then on a 39-yard field following WSU’s offense turning the ball over on downs in the fourth quarter.
“Another second-half shutout up until that last drive. I mean, they’re doing their job … giving us chances to win,” Mental said. “We’ve just got to play complementary football on the offensive side and special teams.”
At this point, though, games against Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona might have been the best places to figure that out. UC Davis is always a tough matchup and, defensively, poses a much greater challenge than the Bears or the Lumberjacks.
“With Coach (Dan) Hawkins and their staff, they’re well-coached,” Mental said. “They’ve got a returning quarterback who’s efficient through the air, doesn’t make too many mistakes. They run to the football defensively, they fly around and play hard.”
MEET THE AGGIES
That returning quarterback is Miles Hastings (No. 7). The junior is completing 64% of his passes for 220 yards per game, throwing eight touchdowns to five interceptions. His 31 of 46 for 359 yards and two touchdowns against Montana weren’t enough, despite outgaining Montana with no turnovers.
Part of that is due to imbalance. UC Davis has been without Lan Larison (No. 3) at running back, statistically the best running back in the Big Sky despite being out for two straight games. He rushed 22 times for 255 yards through three quarters against Eastern Washington on Sept. 23 before leaving that game with a significant knee injury. His status this week is not apparent.
Hastings’ passing attack is balanced, with plenty of throws going to Josh Gale (No. 81), CJ Hutton (No. 1) and Trent Tompkins (N0. 18).
Defensively, sophomore safety Rex Connors (No. 4), native of Pleasant Grove, is the man for Davis. He holds a significant team lead in tackles at 53, adding one interception, one forced fumble and six pass breakups. Linebacker Teddye Buchanan (No. 15) has 36 tackles, with team highs in tackles for loss (4.5) and sacks (two).
TEAM VS. TEAM METRICS
Through six games, Weber State is averaging 19 points and 265 yards per game, averaging 4.4 yards per play. Defensively, WSU gives up 24.3 points and 421 yards per game on a 5.4 yards-per-play average.
UC Davis averages 26 points on 436 yards per game, averaging 5.4 yards per play. Defensively, the Aggies allow an average of 26.2 points per game on 393 yards and a 5.3 yards-per-play average.
ODDS & PREDICTIONS
Jeff Sagarin ranks Weber State No. 153 in all of Division I (FBS and FCS). UC Davis is No. 143 overall. Including accounting for home-field advantage, his formula favors Weber State by 1.5 points.
Bill Connelly ranks Weber State at No. 27 in FCS and UC Davis at 24. His formula predicts a Weber State win 25-24.
D Ratings predicts a UC Davis victory of 28-25 at 56% probability.
WEATHER
Saturday’s forecast calls for a partly cloudy day with a high of 67 degrees. With the sun still up, temperatures should be around 64 degrees at 6 p.m. kickoff but reach mid- to low-50s by the end of the game.
TV & RADIO
The game broadcast will stream on the ESPN+ subscription service, available at watchespn.com or the ESPN mobile/streaming app, with Tony Parks on the call.
Steve Klauke and Jerry Graybeal have the radio call on 103.1 FM over the air in Utah and at www.1031thewave.com online.
ALL-TIME SERIES
Weber State leads the all-time series 7-3, though UC Davis took the last meeting in Ogden, a 17-14 win in 2021.