A relatively even historical series gave way to a stretch of Montana State dominance from 2001-14. The Bobacts won 12 of 13 games, and the one Weber State got was again a barometer: the sterling 2008 squad that won 10 games and a road playoff game at No. 3 Cal Poly got MSU on the road.

Then, the peak of the Jay Hill era shifted the series momentarily to Weber’s side, with three controlled WSU wins from 2016-18.

After the peak of the pandemic, things went back to MSU, which has spent that time building a national power. The next three games were close battles that all went MSU’s way, including one playoff matchup (13-7, 43-38, 33-25). But the last two, the Bobcats have won 40-0 and 66-14.

So in all, the defending national champions have won 17 of the last 21 in this series.

The pedigree in Bozeman is strong.

“They have a successful program and have been winning a lot of football games over the last five or six years. They have a great tradition, and we understand most people are going to think we’re an underdog,” WSU head coach Eric Kjar said. “We’re just focusing on playing our best football, being competitive, play our butts off and give ourselves the best chance we can to win, like we would any game.”

That’s the task ahead for the No. 22 Wildcats (5-3, 4-1 Big Sky) in facing the No. 3 Bobcats (6-1, 3-1).

DEPTH CHART & INJURIES

Not much has officially changed on the depth chart, though Tommy Romano and Jayden Mayberry are listed as co-starters at strong safety, and Bones Marks and Denzel Peoples are co-starters at one cornerback spot.

Though Devin Brown is listed as backup quarterback, a setback in his hand-injury recovery could see Kingston Tisdell occupy the No. 2 QB spot. Safety Trevian Tribble will be back after missing last week’s game due to recovery from illness. Receiver Marvin Session is day-to-day with a hamstring injury that has kept him out of most of the last three games.

MEET THE BOBCATS

The QB that led Montana State to last year’s national title is back after sitting two games with an injury. Justin Lamson (No. 8) has thrown for 219 yards per game over five contests, throwing eight touchdowns to one interception on a completion rate of 72.7%. He adds 27 yards per game on the ground, with a long rush of 41.

MSU’s balanced offense hands the ball to All-American Adam Jones (No. 23) for 68 yards on 13.5 carries per game, with eight touchdowns. His long this season is only 32 yards but he has plenty of game-breaking runs on tape. Colson Coon (No. 28) adds 59 yards on 8.5 carries per game.

Lamson looks equally to Carter Dahlke (No. 13, 69 ypg, 4 TD), Dane Steel (No. 84, 64 ypg, 5 TD), and Taco Dowler (No. 14, 56 ypg, 1 TD). Both Dowlers have also spent time sidelined but it seems both he and fifth-year star safety Caden Dowler (No. 41) may be on the field together again this week.

Linebacker Cole Taylor (No. 34, 53 tackles) and DB Colter Petre (No. 24, 49) lead MSU in tackles. Taylor has two of the team’s nine interceptions. Defensive end Zac Crews (No. 36) is the disruptor with 7.5 tackles for loss, including five sacks.

Roy High alum Colby Frokjer (No. 30) is back as MSU’s punter and kickoff specialist. He’s averaging 44.5 yards per punt. Myles Sansted (No. 39) is 7 of 9 on field goals with a long of 47.

TEAM VS. TEAM METRICS

Through eight games, Weber State averages 36.3 points per game (16th nationally) on 435.6 yards (19th nationally), including 6.3 yards per play. Defensively, WSU has allowed 34.1 points per game on 455 yards, including 5.9 yards per play.

The six-turnover debacle in Game 4 still has the Wildcats well behind in turnover margin at minus-nine, losing 19 giveaways (12 interceptions, seven fumbles) while gaining 10 (six interceptions, four fumbles). WSU has also blocked five kicks this season: three PATs, one field goal, one punt, with the latter two both returned for touchdowns.

Weber leads the Big Sky with 18 sacks (15th nationally) on defense while allowing 15.

WSU averages 4.6 penalties per game for 43.3 yards.

In seven games, Montana State scores 39.7 points per game (sixth nationally) on 437.3 yards (17th nationally), including 7.2 yards per play. Defensively, MSU has allowed 18.6 points per game (15th nationally) on 351.6 yards, including 5.1 yards per play.

The Bobcats take care of the ball and dominate the turnover margin at plus-seven. They’ve lost five turnovers (three interceptions, two fumbles) while gaining 12 takeaways (nine interceptions, three fumbles).

Montana State has recorded 15 sacks defensively while allowing only eight.

The Bobcats average 4.9 penalties per game for 46 yards.

ODDS & PREDICTIONS

Jeff Sagarin ranks Weber State at No. 152 in all of Division I (FBS and FCS, 266 total teams). Montana State is No. 81. His formula favors MSU by 20.5 points.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks Weber State at No. 32 in FCS (128 teams) and Montana State at No. 2. His formula favors Montana State by 22 points, predicting an MSU win of 45-23.

D Ratings favors Montana State by 24, predicting a final of 45-21 at 95% probability.

WEATHER

A rainy Friday was forecast to turn to snow in Bozeman, Montana, with upwards of 1 inch falling between 7 p.m. and midnight. A cold morning will persist to the 1 p.m. kickoff, with sunny skies and a temperature of 39 degrees. Temps will warm to about 45 by game’s end.

TV & RADIO

In Utah, the game will be broadcast over the air on Utah 16 through the Big Sky’s contract with Scripps Sports, as well as on the ESPN+ subscription streaming service. Ben Creighton, Ty Gregorak and Toni Wetmore will have the call.

Weber State’s radio call, with Carl Arky and former WSU player Dave Stireman, airs in Utah on 103.1 FM and online at coast103.com.

ALL-TIME SERIES

A post-2000s dominance has Montana leading the all-time series 34-23-1. MSU has won five straight, including three consecutive in Bozeman, where the Bobcats are 17-10-1 against the Wildcats.

Weber State has just three wins in Bozeman in the last 26 years: 2000, 2008, and 2017.